Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty Predictions & Odds· 101 markets
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$89k Vol.
$15k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$89k Vol.$15k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$8k Liq.
38
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$8k Liq.38Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
$4k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$4k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
0%
March 31, 2026
0%
March 31, 2026
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$137k Vol.
$19k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$137k Vol.$19k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$447k Vol.
$31k Liq.
29
Ends in 9 months
$447k Vol.$31k Liq.29Ends in 9 months
49%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
$129k Vol.
$30k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$129k Vol.$30k Liq.Ends in 30 days
13%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$910k Vol.
$19k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
$910k Vol.$19k Liq.25Ends in 3 months
31%
Yes
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
$22k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$22k Vol.$2k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
27%
Yes
3%
Yes
27%
Yes
16%
Yes
0%
Yes
8%
Yes
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
$153k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$153k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$30k Vol.
$14k Liq.
4
Ends in 30 days
$30k Vol.$14k Liq.4Ends in 30 days
38%
April 30
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$13k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$13k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$48k Vol.
$67k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$48k Vol.$67k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31