Powell Predictions & Odds· 338 markets
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
$243k Vol.
$22k Liq.
33
Ends in 3 months
$243k Vol.$22k Liq.33Ends in 3 months
3%
Yes
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.8m Vol.
$140k Liq.
36
Ends in about 1 month
$1.8m Vol.$140k Liq.36Ends in about 1 month
2%
May 14
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
$145k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in about 11 hours
$145k Vol.$12k Liq.2Ends in about 11 hours
100%
Yes
Trump · Fed Rates
Trump drops Powell investigation by…?
$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 3 months
62%
June 30
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?
$48k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$48k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
0%
Yes
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$117k Vol.
$22k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$117k Vol.$22k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
71%
December 31
Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?
$79k Vol.
$37k Liq.
1
Ends in about 11 hours
$79k Vol.$37k Liq.1Ends in about 11 hours
0%
Yes
Will Trump sue Powell by March 31?
$168k Vol.
$11k Liq.
1
Ends in about 11 hours
$168k Vol.$11k Liq.1Ends in about 11 hours
0%
Yes
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$29k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$29k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.7m Vol.
$1.9m Liq.
🔥$363k today
72
Ends in 7 months
$15.7m Vol.🔥$363k today$1.9m Liq.72Ends in 7 months
96%
Kevin Warsh
Fed decision in April?
$38.5m Vol.
$3.4m Liq.
🔥$1.9m today
18
Ends in 29 days
$38.5m Vol.🔥$1.9m today$3.4m Liq.18Ends in 29 days
97%
No change
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$373k Liq.
🔥$363k today
8
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$363k today$373k Liq.8Ends in 8 months
34%
3.75%
Fed Decision in July?
$2.5m Vol.
$254k Liq.
🔥$303k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.5m Vol.🔥$303k today$254k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$247k Liq.
🔥$281k today
18
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.🔥$281k today$247k Liq.18Ends in 9 months
64%
↓ 3.25%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$279k today
58
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$279k today$1.2m Liq.58Ends in 9 months
37%
0 (0 bps)
Fed Decision in June?
$4.6m Vol.
$909k Liq.
🔥$193k today
11
Ends in 3 months
$4.6m Vol.🔥$193k today$909k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
87%
No change
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
$4.0m Vol.
$709k Liq.
44
Ends in 9 months
$4.0m Vol.$709k Liq.44Ends in 9 months
37%
No Next PM in 2026
24%
Yes
Who will Trump meet with in March?
$239k Vol.
$131k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$239k Vol.$131k Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
4%
Andy Jassy
64%
December Meeting