Public Policy Predictions & Odds· 111 markets

Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?
$415k Vol.
$10k Liq.
25
Ends in about 7 hours
$415k Vol.$10k Liq.25Ends in about 7 hours
1%
Yes

Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?
$212k Vol.
$26k Liq.
61
Ends in 3 months
$212k Vol.$26k Liq.61Ends in 3 months
8%
Yes

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
$1.6m Vol.
$30k Liq.
155
Ends in 3 months
$1.6m Vol.$30k Liq.155Ends in 3 months
24%
June 30, 2026

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
$874k Vol.
$76k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$874k Vol.$76k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
29%
December 31

US announces military support of Kurds by...?
$482k Vol.
$10k Liq.
40
Ends in about 1 month
$482k Vol.$10k Liq.40Ends in about 1 month
19%
April 30

US announces military support of Iran opposition by...?
$233k Vol.
$19k Liq.
10
Ends in about 1 month
$233k Vol.$19k Liq.10Ends in about 1 month
8%
April 30

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$17k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$17k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30

17%
Isfahan nuclear facility

45%
Yes

White House # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$52k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$52k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 4 days
39%
160-179

White House # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$151k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in about 23 hours
$151k Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in about 23 hours
70%
160-179

93%
April 30

MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
$14.0m Vol.
$441k Liq.
256
Ends in 3 months
$14.0m Vol.$441k Liq.256Ends in 3 months
44%
>$600M

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
$37k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$37k Vol.$27k Liq.Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes

Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?
$82k Vol.
$21k Liq.
8
Ends in about 7 hours
$82k Vol.$21k Liq.8Ends in about 7 hours
1%
Yes

Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?
$55k Vol.
$19k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$55k Vol.$19k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes

83%
Pause–Pause–Pause

Crypto
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?
$7k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$7k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
86%
50

