Robotaxi Predictions & Odds· 114 markets
W
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?
$23k Vol.
$3k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$23k Vol.$3k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
W
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
$78k Vol.
$7k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$78k Vol.$7k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
S
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
$7k Vol.
$3k Liq.
5
Ends in over 1 year
$7k Vol.$3k Liq.5Ends in over 1 year
78%
SpaceX
W
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
$68k Vol.
$20k Liq.
12
Ends in 9 months
$68k Vol.$20k Liq.12Ends in 9 months
24%
December 31
C
9%
Yes
W
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
$57k Vol.
$7k Liq.
1
Ends in over 1 year
$57k Vol.$7k Liq.1Ends in over 1 year
96%
SpaceX
O
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$1.4m Vol.
$22k Liq.
3
Ends in over 1 year
$1.4m Vol.$22k Liq.3Ends in over 1 year
67%
$800B
W
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$804k Vol.
$133k Liq.
1
Ends in 30 days
$804k Vol.$133k Liq.1Ends in 30 days
86%
Anthropic
W
Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$13k Vol.
$52k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$13k Vol.$52k Liq.Ends in 30 days
82%
Anthropic
O
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
$14k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
$14k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in over 1 year
37%
750B–1T
C
63%
April 17
H
How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?
$132k Vol.
$128k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
$132k Vol.$128k Liq.3Ends in 3 months
39%
12+
W
Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$7k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$7k Vol.$24k Liq.Ends in 30 days
39%
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$6k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$6k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
21%
Yes
U
USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$2.4m Vol.
$202k Liq.
54
Ends in 9 months
$2.4m Vol.$202k Liq.54Ends in 9 months
78%
$100M
W
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
$30k Vol.
$5k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$30k Vol.$5k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
33%
Yes
M
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
$14.1m Vol.
$574k Liq.
258
Ends in 3 months
$14.1m Vol.$574k Liq.258Ends in 3 months
44%
>$600M
A
23%
December 31, 2026
O
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
$1.5m Vol.
$112k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$1.5m Vol.$112k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
61%
No IPO by December 31, 2026