Robotaxi Predictions & Odds· 114 markets
W
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?
$23k Vol.
$2k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$23k Vol.$2k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
W
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
$78k Vol.
$11k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$78k Vol.$11k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
S
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
$7k Vol.
$3k Liq.
5
Ends in over 1 year
$7k Vol.$3k Liq.5Ends in over 1 year
78%
SpaceX
W
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
$69k Vol.
$20k Liq.
11
Ends in 9 months
$69k Vol.$20k Liq.11Ends in 9 months
14%
December 31
W
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
$57k Vol.
$8k Liq.
1
Ends in over 1 year
$57k Vol.$8k Liq.1Ends in over 1 year
96%
SpaceX
O
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$1.4m Vol.
$19k Liq.
2
Ends in over 1 year
$1.4m Vol.$19k Liq.2Ends in over 1 year
75%
$800B
W
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$856k Vol.
$158k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$856k Vol.$158k Liq.Ends in 27 days
90%
Anthropic
W
Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$15k Vol.
$65k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$15k Vol.$65k Liq.Ends in 27 days
85%
Anthropic
O
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
$14k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
$14k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in over 1 year
36%
750B–1T
C
65%
April 17
H
How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?
$133k Vol.
$33k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$133k Vol.$33k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
45%
12+
W
Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$9k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$9k Vol.$33k Liq.Ends in 27 days
50%
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$8k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$8k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
U
USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$2.5m Vol.
$199k Liq.
🔥$60k today
54
Ends in 9 months
$2.5m Vol.🔥$60k today$199k Liq.54Ends in 9 months
92%
$100M
W
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
$32k Vol.
$7k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$32k Vol.$7k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
26%
Yes
M
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
$14.5m Vol.
$436k Liq.
🔥$158k today
258
Ends in 3 months
$14.5m Vol.🔥$158k today$436k Liq.258Ends in 3 months
63%
>$600M
A
20%
Yes
O
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
$1.6m Vol.
$105k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1.6m Vol.$105k Liq.Ends in 9 months
62%
No IPO by December 31, 2026
W
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
$51k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
$51k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in over 1 year
57%
Anthropic