Trade Deal Predictions & Odds· 134 markets
1
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
$40k Vol.
$13k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$40k Vol.$13k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
5%
Yes
T
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
$30k Vol.
$11k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$30k Vol.$11k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
W
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
$190k Vol.
$161k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$190k Vol.$161k Liq.Ends in 9 months
24%
Israel
W
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
$2k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$2k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 9 months
12%
Yes
U
US x Cuba economic deal by...?
$92k Vol.
$30k Liq.
15
Ends in 3 months
$92k Vol.$30k Liq.15Ends in 3 months
37%
June 30
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$75k Vol.
$22k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$75k Vol.$22k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
53%
Yes
W
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$533k Vol.
$37k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$533k Vol.$37k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$12k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$12k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
U
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$471k Vol.
$44k Liq.
64
Ends in 9 months
$471k Vol.$44k Liq.64Ends in 9 months
39%
Yes
W
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
$51k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$51k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
$385k Vol.
$44k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months
$385k Vol.$44k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
17%
Yes
U
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$964k Vol.
$30k Liq.
53
Ends in 3 months
$964k Vol.$30k Liq.53Ends in 3 months
25%
Yes
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$103k Vol.
$43k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$103k Vol.$43k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
54%
US x Iran Ceasefire
W
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
$329k Vol.
$19k Liq.
36
Ends in 3 months
$329k Vol.$19k Liq.36Ends in 3 months
47%
Yes
W
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
$356k Vol.
$71k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$356k Vol.$71k Liq.Ends in 9 months
27%
Kuwait
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.9m Vol.
$389k Liq.
🔥$476k today
Ends in 28 days
$1.9m Vol.🔥$476k today$389k Liq.Ends in 28 days
2%
Yes
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$132k Vol.
$19k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$132k Vol.$19k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
W
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with in 2025?
$877k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$877k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
Australia
W
Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with by December 31?
$24k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$24k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
Israel