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Trump Day 1 Predictions & Odds· 123 markets

AllPoliticsStrikeIranTrumpElectionsMiddle EastIsraelVenezuelaStrait Of HormuzChinaOilCeasefireEnergyConflictHouthisYemenPrimary ElectionsDemocratic PrimaryUS ElectionCourtsGeopoliticsEconomyMentionsTrump PresidencyMacro GeopoliticsApprovalTariffsTrade WarWorldTrump XiRewards 10, 4.5, 50ApprovalsFederalizeHouse PrimaryNew York PrimaryLidMilitary StrikesIran CeasefireU.S. X IranIsrael X IranHormozCloseShipsTransitTankerTrafficHormuz
W
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Politics·Tariffs

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

$329k Vol.
$28k Liq.
36
Ends in 3 months

48%

Yes

H
How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet?

Politics·China

How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet?

$58k Vol.
$55k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months

30%

6–10s

W
Who will Trump endorse?

Politics·Trump

Who will Trump endorse?

$111k Vol.
$13k Liq.
5
Ends in 7 months

75%

Susan Collins - ME-Sen

W
What will Trump say in March?

Mentions·Trump

What will Trump say in March?

$969k Vol.
$105k Liq.
🔥$640k today
84
Ended

0%

Yes

W
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

Economy·Venezuela

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

$90k Vol.
$30k Liq.
7
Ends in 11 months

86%

1m

I
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

World·Middle East

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

$12.0m Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
🔥$1.5m today
371
Ended

87%

December 31

T
Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Politics·Trump

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

$6k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 1 day

9%

Up

U
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?

Geopolitics·conflict

US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?

$96k Vol.
$21k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months

27%

Yes

W
Will Trump nationalize elections?

Politics·federalize

Will Trump nationalize elections?

$14k Vol.
$5k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months

31%

Yes

N
NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

Elections·Trump

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

$104k Vol.
$90k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months

48%

Micah Lasher

S
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Economy·ships

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

$2.1m Vol.
$220k Liq.
🔥$184k today
Ends in 27 days

13%

Yes

S
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Geopolitics·transit

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

$29k Vol.
$38k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months

37%

Yes

A
Another US strike on Venezuela by...?

Politics·Venezuela

Another US strike on Venezuela by...?

$2.5m Vol.
$16k Liq.
59
Ended

23%

December 31

A
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Geopolitics·traffic

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

$31k Vol.
$57k Liq.
Ends in 27 days

41%

0-10

U
US strikes Yemen by...?

Politics·Trump

US strikes Yemen by...?

$381k Vol.
$6k Liq.
12
Ended

1%

Yes

M
Military action against Iran ends on...?

Politics·strike

Military action against Iran ends on...?

$123k Vol.
$215k Liq.
Ends in 27 days

59%

Military action through April 30

W
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (March 30 - April 4)

Politics·Trump

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (March 30 - April 4)

$30k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 1 day

96%

April 2

M
Military action against Iran ends by...?

Geopolitics·Middle East

Military action against Iran ends by...?

$47k Vol.
$97k Liq.
Ends in 27 days

45%

April 24

W
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Economy·Trump

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

$651k Vol.
$50k Liq.
Ended

3%

20+

W
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

Economy·U.S. x Iran

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

$23k Vol.
$37k Liq.
Ends in 27 days

42%

20+