Trump Day 1 Predictions & Odds· 294 markets
W
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
$329k Vol.
$20k Liq.
36
Ends in 3 months
$329k Vol.$20k Liq.36Ends in 3 months
47%
Yes
W
What will Trump say in March?
$968k Vol.
$109k Liq.
🔥$696k today
83
Ended
$968k Vol.🔥$696k today$109k Liq.83Ended
0%
Yes
W
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
$90k Vol.
$24k Liq.
7
Ends in 11 months
$90k Vol.$24k Liq.7Ends in 11 months
86%
1m
I
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$11.9m Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
🔥$1.6m today
371
Ended
$11.9m Vol.🔥$1.6m today$1.1m Liq.371Ended
87%
December 31
H
How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet?
$58k Vol.
$50k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$58k Vol.$50k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
30%
6–10s
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$96k Vol.
$20k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$96k Vol.$20k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
N
NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner
$104k Vol.
$85k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$104k Vol.$85k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
48%
Micah Lasher
S
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
$2.1m Vol.
$224k Liq.
🔥$190k today
Ends in 28 days
$2.1m Vol.🔥$190k today$224k Liq.Ends in 28 days
13%
Yes
S
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
$29k Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$29k Vol.$29k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
37%
Yes
A
23%
December 31
A
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?
$25k Vol.
$69k Liq.
Ends in 28 days
$25k Vol.$69k Liq.Ends in 28 days
43%
0-10
M
Military action against Iran ends on...?
$122k Vol.
$220k Liq.
Ends in 28 days
$122k Vol.$220k Liq.Ends in 28 days
59%
Military action through April 30
W
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (March 30 - April 4)
$30k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$30k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 1 day
96%
April 2
M
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$46k Vol.
$103k Liq.
Ends in 28 days
$46k Vol.$103k Liq.Ends in 28 days
45%
April 24
W
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
$650k Vol.
$53k Liq.
Ended
$650k Vol.$53k Liq.Ended
3%
20+
W
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
$23k Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in 28 days
$23k Vol.$40k Liq.Ends in 28 days
51%
20+
W
Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?
$330k Vol.
$45k Liq.
4
Ends in 2 months
$330k Vol.$45k Liq.4Ends in 2 months
65%
Scott Wiener
M
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$315k Vol.
$46k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$315k Vol.$46k Liq.Ends in 3 months
82%
June 30
W
71%
Susan Collins - ME-Sen