2024 Nomination Predictions & Odds· 243 markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$944.9m Vol.
$38.5m Liq.
🔥$9.0m today
629
Ends in over 2 years
$944.9m Vol.🔥$9.0m today$38.5m Liq.629Ends in over 2 years
24%
Gavin Newsom
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
$497.5m Vol.
$28.0m Liq.
🔥$6.9m today
328
Ends in over 2 years
$497.5m Vol.🔥$6.9m today$28.0m Liq.328Ends in over 2 years
49%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?
$177 Vol.
$16k Liq.
1
Ends in over 2 years
$177 Vol.$16k Liq.1Ends in over 2 years
24%
Yes
Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?
$0 Vol.
$16k Liq.
1
Ends in over 2 years
$0 Vol.$16k Liq.1Ends in over 2 years
14%
Yes
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
$65k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
$65k Vol.$31k Liq.1Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
Iran leader end of 2026?
$5.6m Vol.
$882k Liq.
71
Ends in 9 months
$5.6m Vol.$882k Liq.71Ends in 9 months
50%
Mojtaba Khamenei
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
$845k Vol.
$88k Liq.
30
Ends in 9 months
$845k Vol.$88k Liq.30Ends in 9 months
15%
Yes
How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?
$67k Vol.
$67k Liq.
5
Ends in 5 months
$67k Vol.$67k Liq.5Ends in 5 months
58%
7
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
$50k Vol.
$40k Liq.
4
Ends in 5 months
$50k Vol.$40k Liq.4Ends in 5 months
41%
36–39
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?
$29k Vol.
$14k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
$29k Vol.$14k Liq.5Ends in 3 months
7%
Yes
How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?
$7k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 5 months
$7k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 5 months
39%
24–27
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
$2.5m Vol.
$182k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$2.5m Vol.$182k Liq.Ends in 9 months
59%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?
$211 Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$211 Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in 9 months
35%
60+
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
$436k Vol.
$35k Liq.
12
Ends in about 1 month
$436k Vol.$35k Liq.12Ends in about 1 month
52%
May 15
85%
Ritchie Torres
AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner
$299k Vol.
$90k Liq.
2
Ends in 4 months
$299k Vol.$90k Liq.2Ends in 4 months
71%
Jay Feely
GA-05 Democratic Primary Winner
$6k Vol.
$46k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$6k Vol.$46k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
96%
Nikema Williams
KY-04 Republican Primary Winner
$127k Vol.
$57k Liq.
28
Ends in about 2 months
$127k Vol.$57k Liq.28Ends in about 2 months
64%
Thomas Massie
44%
Alex Pelbath
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$41k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$41k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
46%
US x Iran Ceasefire