Altman Predictions & Odds· 124 markets
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$5k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$5k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
21%
Yes
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
$91k Vol.
$20k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months
$91k Vol.$20k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
34%
Yes
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?
$0 Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$0 Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 3 months
37%
Yes
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
11%
Yes
Who will Trump meet with in March?
$239k Vol.
$136k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$239k Vol.$136k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
6%
Reza Pahlavi
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$1.4m Vol.
$21k Liq.
2
Ends in almost 2 years
$1.4m Vol.$21k Liq.2Ends in almost 2 years
66%
$800B
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
$532k Vol.
$41k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months
$532k Vol.$41k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
34%
Dan Clancy - Twitch
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
$1.6m Vol.
$257k Liq.
11
Ends in 9 months
$1.6m Vol.$257k Liq.11Ends in 9 months
90%
SpaceX
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
$51k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in almost 2 years
$51k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in almost 2 years
68%
Anthropic
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
$241k Vol.
$8k Liq.
31
Ended
$241k Vol.$8k Liq.31Ended
45%
December 31, 2026
82%
December 31, 2026
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$5k Liq.
12
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$5k Liq.12Ends in 9 months
45%
Head-mounted display
47%
Brad Cohen
24%
Yes
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
$57k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in almost 2 years
$57k Vol.$3k Liq.1Ends in almost 2 years
96%
SpaceX
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
$7k Vol.
$3k Liq.
5
Ends in almost 2 years
$7k Vol.$3k Liq.5Ends in almost 2 years
78%
SpaceX
Over 30M humans verified on World Network by December 31?
$0 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 9 months
23%
Yes