Embargo Predictions & Odds· 104 markets
US x Cuba economic deal by...?
$81k Vol.
$20k Liq.
15
Ends in 3 months
$81k Vol.$20k Liq.15Ends in 3 months
36%
June 30
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?
$410k Vol.
$13k Liq.
25
Ends in about 14 hours
$410k Vol.$13k Liq.25Ends in about 14 hours
0%
Yes
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
$701k Vol.
$112k Liq.
34
Ends in 9 months
$701k Vol.$112k Liq.34Ends in 9 months
34%
7
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$99k Vol.
$14k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$99k Vol.$14k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
17%
Isfahan nuclear facility
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by...?
$78k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 16 days
$78k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 16 days
51%
April 15
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$28k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$28k Vol.$12k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
42%
April 30
Middle East · Iran Regime
Internet Access restored in Iran by...?
$100k Vol.
$14k Liq.
27
Ends in about 1 month
$100k Vol.$14k Liq.27Ends in about 1 month
17%
April 30
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
$60k Vol.
$17k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$60k Vol.$17k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
41%
Yes
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...?
$7k Vol.
$962 Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$7k Vol.$962 Liq.1Ends in 9 months
71%
December 31, 2026
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
$5.3m Vol.
$147k Liq.
🔥$469k today
2
Ends in 9 months
$5.3m Vol.🔥$469k today$147k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
27%
5
Iran military action against ___ by March 31?
$3.6m Vol.
$180k Liq.
🔥$380k today
Ends in about 14 hours
$3.6m Vol.🔥$380k today$180k Liq.Ends in about 14 hours
96%
Bahrain
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$160k Vol.
$121k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$160k Vol.$121k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
98%
Kuwait
How many different countries will Israel strike in April?
$14k Vol.
$39k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$14k Vol.$39k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
48%
≥4
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$27k Vol.
$52k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$27k Vol.$52k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
46%
April 25
47%
Yes
33%
Yes