Regional Spillover Predictions & Odds· 127 markets
Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?
$13k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$13k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?
$31k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$31k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
Iran military action against ___ by March 31?
$3.6m Vol.
$180k Liq.
🔥$465k today
Ends in about 18 hours
$3.6m Vol.🔥$465k today$180k Liq.Ends in about 18 hours
94%
Bahrain
Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by March 31?
$10.9m Vol.
$347k Liq.
🔥$377k today
Ends in about 18 hours
$10.9m Vol.🔥$377k today$347k Liq.Ends in about 18 hours
3%
Qatar
Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
$454k Vol.
$250k Liq.
🔥$341k today
Ends in about 1 month
$454k Vol.🔥$341k today$250k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
32%
Saudi Arabia
Houthi strike on Israel by...?
$1.1m Vol.
$35k Liq.
🔥$130k today
347
Ends in about 18 hours
$1.1m Vol.🔥$130k today$35k Liq.347Ends in about 18 hours
44%
April 15
Israel military action against Yemen by...?
$1.0m Vol.
$56k Liq.
🔥$96k today
96
Ends in 3 months
$1.0m Vol.🔥$96k today$56k Liq.96Ends in 3 months
91%
June 30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
$319k Vol.
$106k Liq.
🔥$62k today
30
Ends in about 1 month
$319k Vol.🔥$62k today$106k Liq.30Ends in about 1 month
39%
April 30
US/Israel strike Yemen by...?
$392k Vol.
$13k Liq.
🔥$55k today
51
Ends in about 18 hours
$392k Vol.🔥$55k today$13k Liq.51Ends in about 18 hours
17%
Yes
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$17k Liq.
19
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$17k Liq.19Ends in 3 months
64%
Yes
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...?
$131k Vol.
$33k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$131k Vol.$33k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
33%
April 30
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$153k Vol.
$134k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$153k Vol.$134k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
98%
Bahrain
How many different countries will Israel strike in April?
$13k Vol.
$41k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$13k Vol.$41k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
48%
≥4
How many different countries will Israel strike in March?
$324k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in about 18 hours
$324k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in about 18 hours
66%
3
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?
$42k Vol.
$20k Liq.
5
Ends in about 18 hours
$42k Vol.$20k Liq.5Ends in about 18 hours
48%
April 30
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by...?
$17k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$17k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
28%
April 30
Gulf State military action against Iran by...?
$4k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$4k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
28%
April 30
U.S. evacuates Jerusalem embassy by March 31?
$53k Vol.
$8k Liq.
3
Ends in about 18 hours
$53k Vol.$8k Liq.3Ends in about 18 hours
1%
Yes
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by March 31?
$27k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 18 hours
$27k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 18 hours
4%
Yes
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31?
$139k Vol.
$15k Liq.
15
Ends in about 18 hours
$139k Vol.$15k Liq.15Ends in about 18 hours
1%
Yes