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Federal Reserve Predictions & Odds· 144 markets

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W
Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Politics·Congress

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

$72k Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

92%

Thom Tillis

J
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by March 31?

Politics·Trump

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by March 31?

$0 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ended

53%

>5%

U
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?

Crypto·Bitcoin

US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?

$25k Vol.
$19k Liq.
38
Ends in 9 months

22%

Yes

U
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?

Politics·Ethereum

US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?

$15k Vol.
$4k Liq.
13
Ends in 9 months

23%

Yes

W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Politics·Fed Rates

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$6.0m Vol.
$291k Liq.
7
Ends in 8 months

26%

3.5%

K
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

Politics·Trump

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

$66k Vol.
$33k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month

2%

Yes

F
Fed decision in April?

Economy·Economic Policy

Fed decision in April?

$45.8m Vol.
$4.4m Liq.
🔥$2.2m today
39
Ends in 26 days

98%

No change

W
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Politics·Trump

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

$17.9m Vol.
$1.8m Liq.
🔥$1.1m today
74
Ends in 7 months

96%

Kevin Warsh

H
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Economy·Business

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$15.4m Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
🔥$147k today
61
Ends in 9 months

32%

0 (0 bps)

F
Fed Decision in June?

Politics·Economic Policy

Fed Decision in June?

$5.2m Vol.
$994k Liq.
🔥$85k today
22
Ends in 3 months

90%

No change

F
Fed rate hike in 2026?

Economy·Fed

Fed rate hike in 2026?

$793k Vol.
$38k Liq.
6
Ends in 8 months

14%

Yes

F
Fed Decision in July?

Economy·fomc

Fed Decision in July?

$3.2m Vol.
$292k Liq.
Ends in 4 months

80%

No change

F
Fed rate cut by...?

Economy·Fed

Fed rate cut by...?

$1.3m Vol.
$182k Liq.
16
Ends in 3 months

64%

December Meeting

F
Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Economy·Economic Policy

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

$406k Vol.
$96k Liq.
35
Ends in 26 days

98%

Pause–Pause–Pause

L
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Tech·Business

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

$1.6m Vol.
$272k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months

90%

SpaceX

J
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Politics·Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

$1.9m Vol.
$40k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month

1%

Yes

W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?

Geopolitics·Trump

What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?

$103k Vol.
$53k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months

54%

US x Iran Ceasefire

W
Will SOFR hit __ in April?

Economy·Interest Rate

Will SOFR hit __ in April?

$2k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 27 days

100%

↓3.66%

F
Fed rate hike by...?

Finance·fomc

Fed rate hike by...?

$3k Vol.
$197k Liq.
Ends in 7 months

27%

October Meeting

P
Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Parlays · Hide From New

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

$107k Vol.
$51k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

75%

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%