Federal Predictions & Odds· 1210 markets
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
$34k Vol.
$13k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$34k Vol.$13k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
26%
Yes
Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
$72k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$72k Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in 3 months
95%
Kevin Cramer
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$275k Liq.
🔥$149k today
9
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$149k today$275k Liq.9Ends in 8 months
26%
3.75%
Which companies will the US take a stake in?
$77k Vol.
$14k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$77k Vol.$14k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
51%
Palantir
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
$65k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
$65k Vol.$31k Liq.1Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
Fed decision in April?
$39.7m Vol.
$3.8m Liq.
🔥$2.5m today
26
Ends in 29 days
$39.7m Vol.🔥$2.5m today$3.8m Liq.26Ends in 29 days
98%
No change
Fed Decision in July?
$3.0m Vol.
$258k Liq.
🔥$789k today
1
Ends in 4 months
$3.0m Vol.🔥$789k today$258k Liq.1Ends in 4 months
77%
No change
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
$22.1m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$423k today
819
Ends in 9 months
$22.1m Vol.🔥$423k today$1.3m Liq.819Ends in 9 months
17%
December 31
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.8m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$278k today
59
Ends in 9 months
$14.8m Vol.🔥$278k today$1.2m Liq.59Ends in 9 months
37%
0 (0 bps)
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.8m Vol.
$1.6m Liq.
🔥$266k today
72
Ends in 7 months
$15.8m Vol.🔥$266k today$1.6m Liq.72Ends in 7 months
95%
Kevin Warsh
Fed Decision in June?
$4.8m Vol.
$801k Liq.
🔥$244k today
14
Ends in 3 months
$4.8m Vol.🔥$244k today$801k Liq.14Ends in 3 months
89%
No change
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?
$2.3m Vol.
$325k Liq.
🔥$129k today
125
Ended
$2.3m Vol.🔥$129k today$325k Liq.125Ended
31%
April 30
Who visited Epstein's Island?
$1.5m Vol.
$278k Liq.
🔥$119k today
121
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.🔥$119k today$278k Liq.121Ends in 3 months
32%
Richard Branson
Fed rate hike in 2026?
$740k Vol.
$47k Liq.
🔥$80k today
28
Ends in 8 months
$740k Vol.🔥$80k today$47k Liq.28Ends in 8 months
18%
Yes
Which party will win the House in 2026?
$4.1m Vol.
$463k Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
$4.1m Vol.$463k Liq.1Ends in 7 months
85%
Democratic Party
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
$1.3m Vol.
$311k Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
$1.3m Vol.$311k Liq.1Ends in 7 months
52%
Democratic Party
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.9m Vol.
$137k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month
$1.9m Vol.$137k Liq.37Ends in about 1 month
1%
May 14
64%
December Meeting
0%
Yes