Federal Predictions & Odds· 2842 markets
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
$34k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$34k Vol.$20k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
26%
Yes
Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
$72k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$72k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 3 months
94%
Kevin Cramer
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$318k Liq.
🔥$150k today
8
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$150k today$318k Liq.8Ends in 8 months
27%
3.5%
Which companies will the US take a stake in?
$77k Vol.
$17k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$77k Vol.$17k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
51%
Palantir
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
$65k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
$65k Vol.$31k Liq.1Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
Fed decision in April?
$39.7m Vol.
$3.8m Liq.
🔥$2.5m today
26
Ends in 29 days
$39.7m Vol.🔥$2.5m today$3.8m Liq.26Ends in 29 days
98%
No change
Fed Decision in July?
$3.0m Vol.
$238k Liq.
🔥$764k today
1
Ends in 4 months
$3.0m Vol.🔥$764k today$238k Liq.1Ends in 4 months
77%
No change
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
$22.1m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$424k today
818
Ends in 9 months
$22.1m Vol.🔥$424k today$1.3m Liq.818Ends in 9 months
17%
December 31
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.8m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$277k today
58
Ends in 9 months
$14.8m Vol.🔥$277k today$1.2m Liq.58Ends in 9 months
37%
0 (0 bps)
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.8m Vol.
$1.6m Liq.
🔥$249k today
71
Ends in 7 months
$15.8m Vol.🔥$249k today$1.6m Liq.71Ends in 7 months
95%
Kevin Warsh
Fed Decision in June?
$4.7m Vol.
$869k Liq.
🔥$217k today
14
Ends in 3 months
$4.7m Vol.🔥$217k today$869k Liq.14Ends in 3 months
89%
No change
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?
$2.3m Vol.
$336k Liq.
🔥$139k today
123
Ended
$2.3m Vol.🔥$139k today$336k Liq.123Ended
31%
April 30
Who visited Epstein's Island?
$1.5m Vol.
$303k Liq.
🔥$100k today
121
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.🔥$100k today$303k Liq.121Ends in 3 months
41%
Richard Branson
Fed rate hike in 2026?
$740k Vol.
$49k Liq.
🔥$80k today
27
Ends in 8 months
$740k Vol.🔥$80k today$49k Liq.27Ends in 8 months
18%
Yes
Which party will win the House in 2026?
$4.1m Vol.
$502k Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
$4.1m Vol.$502k Liq.1Ends in 7 months
85%
Democratic Party
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
$1.3m Vol.
$364k Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
$1.3m Vol.$364k Liq.1Ends in 7 months
52%
Democratic Party
64%
December Meeting
0%
Yes
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
$4.4m Vol.
$187k Liq.
112
Ends in 6 months
$4.4m Vol.$187k Liq.112Ends in 6 months
70%
United Russia (ER)