Foreign Policy Predictions & Odds· 142 markets
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
$1.6m Vol.
$27k Liq.
156
Ends in 3 months
$1.6m Vol.$27k Liq.156Ends in 3 months
24%
June 30, 2026
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$9k Liq.
38
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$9k Liq.38Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$29.5m Vol.
$389k Liq.
🔥$557k today
20,364
Ended
$29.5m Vol.🔥$557k today$389k Liq.20,364Ended
0%
Yes
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$536k Liq.
🔥$359k today
72
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$359k today$536k Liq.72Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.9m Vol.
$458k Liq.
🔥$241k today
1
Ends in 3 months
$3.9m Vol.🔥$241k today$458k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
$31.0m Vol.
$292k Liq.
🔥$84k today
1
Ends in 9 months
$31.0m Vol.🔥$84k today$292k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$490k Liq.
🔥$74k today
5,427
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$74k today$490k Liq.5,427Ends in 9 months
30%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$229k Liq.
1
Ends in 30 days
$1.1m Vol.$229k Liq.1Ends in 30 days
3%
Yes
0%
Yes
Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?
$3.4m Vol.
$144k Liq.
131
Ended
$3.4m Vol.$144k Liq.131Ended
2%
India
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
$372k Vol.
$164k Liq.
10
Ends in 3 months
$372k Vol.$164k Liq.10Ends in 3 months
56%
Pakistan
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$137k Vol.
$19k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$137k Vol.$19k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?
$203k Vol.
$48k Liq.
6
Ends in 30 days
$203k Vol.$48k Liq.6Ends in 30 days
25%
April 30
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?
$105k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ended
$105k Vol.$24k Liq.Ended
0%
Yes
11%
June 30, 2026
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
$1.5m Vol.
$81k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$1.5m Vol.$81k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
$149k Vol.
$21k Liq.
18
Ends in 9 months
$149k Vol.$21k Liq.18Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
20%
December 31, 2026
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$447k Vol.
$30k Liq.
29
Ends in 9 months
$447k Vol.$30k Liq.29Ends in 9 months
49%
Yes