Robotaxi Predictions & Odds· 114 markets
W
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?
$23k Vol.
$3k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$23k Vol.$3k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
W
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
$78k Vol.
$8k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$78k Vol.$8k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
S
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
$7k Vol.
$3k Liq.
5
Ends in over 1 year
$7k Vol.$3k Liq.5Ends in over 1 year
74%
SpaceX
W
Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
$69k Vol.
$20k Liq.
11
Ends in 9 months
$69k Vol.$20k Liq.11Ends in 9 months
14%
December 31
C
6%
Yes
W
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
$57k Vol.
$7k Liq.
1
Ends in over 1 year
$57k Vol.$7k Liq.1Ends in over 1 year
96%
SpaceX
O
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$1.4m Vol.
$19k Liq.
2
Ends in over 1 year
$1.4m Vol.$19k Liq.2Ends in over 1 year
75%
$800B
S
60%
Super Heavy booster explodes?
W
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$851k Vol.
$153k Liq.
Ends in 28 days
$851k Vol.$153k Liq.Ends in 28 days
90%
Anthropic
W
Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$15k Vol.
$55k Liq.
Ends in 28 days
$15k Vol.$55k Liq.Ends in 28 days
85%
Anthropic
O
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
$14k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
$14k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in over 1 year
36%
750B–1T
C
66%
April 17
H
How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?
$133k Vol.
$30k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$133k Vol.$30k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
45%
12+
W
Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$9k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in 28 days
$9k Vol.$33k Liq.Ends in 28 days
52%
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$5k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$5k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
W
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
$32k Vol.
$8k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$32k Vol.$8k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
26%
Yes
M
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
$14.5m Vol.
$425k Liq.
🔥$163k today
258
Ends in 3 months
$14.5m Vol.🔥$163k today$425k Liq.258Ends in 3 months
57%
>$600M
A
20%
Yes
O
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
$1.5m Vol.
$107k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1.5m Vol.$107k Liq.Ends in 9 months
61%
No IPO by December 31, 2026
W
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
$51k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
$51k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in over 1 year
57%
Anthropic