Trump Day 1 Predictions & Odds· 294 markets
W
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
$329k Vol.
$21k Liq.
36
Ends in 3 months
$329k Vol.$21k Liq.36Ends in 3 months
48%
Yes
W
What will Trump say in March?
$993k Vol.
$138k Liq.
🔥$637k today
84
Ended
$993k Vol.🔥$637k today$138k Liq.84Ended
0%
Yes
W
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
$90k Vol.
$33k Liq.
7
Ends in 11 months
$90k Vol.$33k Liq.7Ends in 11 months
86%
1m
I
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$12.0m Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
🔥$1.4m today
380
Ended
$12.0m Vol.🔥$1.4m today$1.1m Liq.380Ended
86%
December 31
H
How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet?
$58k Vol.
$54k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$58k Vol.$54k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
28%
6–10s
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$101k Vol.
$19k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$101k Vol.$19k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
24%
Yes
N
NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner
$104k Vol.
$96k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$104k Vol.$96k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
49%
Micah Lasher
S
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
$2.2m Vol.
$211k Liq.
🔥$189k today
Ends in 27 days
$2.2m Vol.🔥$189k today$211k Liq.Ends in 27 days
13%
Yes
S
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
$31k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$31k Vol.$25k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
36%
Yes
A
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?
$34k Vol.
$44k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$34k Vol.$44k Liq.Ends in 27 days
37%
0-10
A
23%
December 31
M
Military action against Iran ends on...?
$125k Vol.
$233k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$125k Vol.$233k Liq.Ends in 27 days
59%
Military action through April 30
W
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (March 30 - April 4)
$30k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$30k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 1 day
96%
April 2
M
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$47k Vol.
$96k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$47k Vol.$96k Liq.Ends in 27 days
45%
April 24
W
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
$652k Vol.
$53k Liq.
Ended
$652k Vol.$53k Liq.Ended
4%
20+
W
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
$23k Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$23k Vol.$40k Liq.Ends in 27 days
52%
20+
W
Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?
$330k Vol.
$47k Liq.
4
Ends in 2 months
$330k Vol.$47k Liq.4Ends in 2 months
65%
Scott Wiener
M
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$316k Vol.
$45k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$316k Vol.$45k Liq.Ends in 3 months
81%
June 30
W
75%
Susan Collins - ME-Sen