US Politics Predictions & Odds· 1982 markets

J
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

$1.9m Vol.
$41k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month

1%

Yes

W
Will the next elected US president be a woman?

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

$10k Vol.
$43k Liq.
2
Ends in over 2 years

20%

Yes

A
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

$254k Vol.
$24k Liq.
11
Ends in 7 months

84%

Shutdown & Democratic Party

P
Presidential Election Winner 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

$483.8m Vol.
$29.0m Liq.
🔥$2.4m today
809
Ends in over 2 years

18%

JD Vance

W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$5.2m Vol.
$241k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

7%

December 31

U
US x Russia military clash by...?

US x Russia military clash by...?

$584k Vol.
$30k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months

10%

December 31, 2026

W
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

$1.6m Vol.
$822k Liq.
64
Ends in over 2 years

60%

Democratic

T
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

$11.0m Vol.
$514k Liq.
🔥$1.3m today
214
Ends in 3 months

78%

June 30

B
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

$4.3m Vol.
$556k Liq.
147
Ends in 7 months

51%

Democrats Sweep

W
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

$1.4m Vol.
$380k Liq.
6
Ends in 7 months

52%

Democratic Party

R
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

27%

≤47

R
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

$59k Vol.
$17k Liq.
4
Ends in 7 months

3%

Yes

R
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

$198k Vol.
$106k Liq.
5
Ends in 7 months

35%

Below 190

B
Blue tsunami in 2026?

Blue tsunami in 2026?

$21k Vol.
$16k Liq.
1
Ends in 8 months

47%

Yes

B
Blue wave in 2026?

Blue wave in 2026?

$28k Vol.
$15k Liq.
4
Ends in 8 months

79%

Yes

2
2026 Midterms: House Turnout

2026 Midterms: House Turnout

$2k Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in 7 months

25%

115-120m

2
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

$28k Vol.
$57k Liq.
Ends in 7 months

46%

Other

A
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?

ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?

$360k Vol.
$21k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months

82%

Not Extended & Democratic Party

M
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?

$97k Vol.
$14k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months

33%

December 31, 2026

D
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

$966.2m Vol.
$39.3m Liq.
🔥$7.9m today
630
Ends in over 2 years

25%

Gavin Newsom