US Politics Predictions & Odds· 1982 markets
J
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.9m Vol.
$41k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month
$1.9m Vol.$41k Liq.37Ends in about 1 month
1%
Yes
W
Will the next elected US president be a woman?
$10k Vol.
$43k Liq.
2
Ends in over 2 years
$10k Vol.$43k Liq.2Ends in over 2 years
20%
Yes
A
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
$254k Vol.
$24k Liq.
11
Ends in 7 months
$254k Vol.$24k Liq.11Ends in 7 months
84%
Shutdown & Democratic Party
P
Presidential Election Winner 2028
$483.8m Vol.
$29.0m Liq.
🔥$2.4m today
809
Ends in over 2 years
$483.8m Vol.🔥$2.4m today$29.0m Liq.809Ends in over 2 years
18%
JD Vance
W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$5.2m Vol.
$241k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$5.2m Vol.$241k Liq.Ends in 9 months
7%
December 31
U
US x Russia military clash by...?
$584k Vol.
$30k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months
$584k Vol.$30k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
10%
December 31, 2026
W
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
$1.6m Vol.
$822k Liq.
64
Ends in over 2 years
$1.6m Vol.$822k Liq.64Ends in over 2 years
60%
Democratic
T
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
$11.0m Vol.
$514k Liq.
🔥$1.3m today
214
Ends in 3 months
$11.0m Vol.🔥$1.3m today$514k Liq.214Ends in 3 months
78%
June 30
B
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
$4.3m Vol.
$556k Liq.
147
Ends in 7 months
$4.3m Vol.$556k Liq.147Ends in 7 months
51%
Democrats Sweep
W
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
$1.4m Vol.
$380k Liq.
6
Ends in 7 months
$1.4m Vol.$380k Liq.6Ends in 7 months
52%
Democratic Party
R
27%
≤47
R
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
$59k Vol.
$17k Liq.
4
Ends in 7 months
$59k Vol.$17k Liq.4Ends in 7 months
3%
Yes
R
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
$198k Vol.
$106k Liq.
5
Ends in 7 months
$198k Vol.$106k Liq.5Ends in 7 months
35%
Below 190
2
25%
115-120m
2
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
$28k Vol.
$57k Liq.
Ends in 7 months
$28k Vol.$57k Liq.Ends in 7 months
46%
Other
A
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?
$360k Vol.
$21k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$360k Vol.$21k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
82%
Not Extended & Democratic Party
M
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?
$97k Vol.
$14k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$97k Vol.$14k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
33%
December 31, 2026
D
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$966.2m Vol.
$39.3m Liq.
🔥$7.9m today
630
Ends in over 2 years
$966.2m Vol.🔥$7.9m today$39.3m Liq.630Ends in over 2 years
25%
Gavin Newsom