US Politics Predictions & Odds· 1978 markets
J
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.9m Vol.
$35k Liq.
36
Ends in about 1 month
$1.9m Vol.$35k Liq.36Ends in about 1 month
2%
Yes
A
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
$254k Vol.
$20k Liq.
11
Ends in 7 months
$254k Vol.$20k Liq.11Ends in 7 months
84%
Shutdown & Democratic Party
W
Will the next elected US president be a woman?
$10k Vol.
$42k Liq.
2
Ends in over 2 years
$10k Vol.$42k Liq.2Ends in over 2 years
20%
Yes
P
Presidential Election Winner 2028
$481.2m Vol.
$28.9m Liq.
🔥$3.2m today
807
Ends in over 2 years
$481.2m Vol.🔥$3.2m today$28.9m Liq.807Ends in over 2 years
18%
JD Vance
W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$5.1m Vol.
$236k Liq.
🔥$168k today
Ends in 9 months
$5.1m Vol.🔥$168k today$236k Liq.Ends in 9 months
9%
December 31
W
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
$1.6m Vol.
$824k Liq.
63
Ends in over 2 years
$1.6m Vol.$824k Liq.63Ends in over 2 years
60%
Democratic
U
US x Russia military clash by...?
$583k Vol.
$24k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months
$583k Vol.$24k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
10%
December 31, 2026
T
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
$9.5m Vol.
$365k Liq.
🔥$1.3m today
177
Ends in 3 months
$9.5m Vol.🔥$1.3m today$365k Liq.177Ends in 3 months
78%
June 30
B
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
$4.3m Vol.
$526k Liq.
🔥$52k today
142
Ends in 7 months
$4.3m Vol.🔥$52k today$526k Liq.142Ends in 7 months
51%
Democrats Sweep
W
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
$1.4m Vol.
$377k Liq.
Ends in 7 months
$1.4m Vol.$377k Liq.Ends in 7 months
52%
Democratic Party
M
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?
$97k Vol.
$11k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$97k Vol.$11k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
40%
December 31, 2026
R
27%
≤47
R
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
$198k Vol.
$106k Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
$198k Vol.$106k Liq.1Ends in 7 months
34%
Below 190
2
18%
120-125m
A
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?
$360k Vol.
$22k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$360k Vol.$22k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
83%
Not Extended & Democratic Party
2
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
$28k Vol.
$48k Liq.
Ends in 7 months
$28k Vol.$48k Liq.Ends in 7 months
46%
Other
R
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
$57k Vol.
$15k Liq.
4
Ends in 7 months
$57k Vol.$15k Liq.4Ends in 7 months
2%
Yes
D
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$957.9m Vol.
$37.6m Liq.
🔥$8.5m today
630
Ends in over 2 years
$957.9m Vol.🔥$8.5m today$37.6m Liq.630Ends in over 2 years
25%
Gavin Newsom