US Politics Predictions & Odds· 1978 markets

J
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

$1.9m Vol.
$35k Liq.
36
Ends in about 1 month

2%

Yes

A
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

$254k Vol.
$20k Liq.
11
Ends in 7 months

84%

Shutdown & Democratic Party

W
Will the next elected US president be a woman?

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

$10k Vol.
$42k Liq.
2
Ends in over 2 years

20%

Yes

P
Presidential Election Winner 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

$481.2m Vol.
$28.9m Liq.
🔥$3.2m today
807
Ends in over 2 years

18%

JD Vance

W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$5.1m Vol.
$236k Liq.
🔥$168k today
Ends in 9 months

9%

December 31

W
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

$1.6m Vol.
$824k Liq.
63
Ends in over 2 years

60%

Democratic

U
US x Russia military clash by...?

US x Russia military clash by...?

$583k Vol.
$24k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months

10%

December 31, 2026

T
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

$9.5m Vol.
$365k Liq.
🔥$1.3m today
177
Ends in 3 months

78%

June 30

B
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

$4.3m Vol.
$526k Liq.
🔥$52k today
142
Ends in 7 months

51%

Democrats Sweep

W
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

$1.4m Vol.
$377k Liq.
Ends in 7 months

52%

Democratic Party

M
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?

$97k Vol.
$11k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months

40%

December 31, 2026

R
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

27%

≤47

B
Blue wave in 2026?

Blue wave in 2026?

$28k Vol.
$17k Liq.
4
Ends in 8 months

79%

Yes

R
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

$198k Vol.
$106k Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months

34%

Below 190

2
2026 Midterms: House Turnout

2026 Midterms: House Turnout

$2k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in 7 months

18%

120-125m

A
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?

ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?

$360k Vol.
$22k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months

83%

Not Extended & Democratic Party

2
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

$28k Vol.
$48k Liq.
Ends in 7 months

46%

Other

B
Blue tsunami in 2026?

Blue tsunami in 2026?

$20k Vol.
$13k Liq.
1
Ends in 8 months

47%

Yes

R
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

$57k Vol.
$15k Liq.
4
Ends in 7 months

2%

Yes

D
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

$957.9m Vol.
$37.6m Liq.
🔥$8.5m today
630
Ends in over 2 years

25%

Gavin Newsom