538 Approval Rating Predictions & Odds· 104 markets

T
Trump approval rating on April 3?

Trump approval rating on April 3?

$91k Vol.
$21k Liq.
🔥$61k today
Ends in 4 days

42%

40.0–40.4

H
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

$41k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

36%

35%

H
How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

$3k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

13%

↑ 44%

T
Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

$5k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 4 days

30%

Up

S
Starmer approval Up or Down in April?

Starmer approval Up or Down in April?

$446 Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in 30 days

44%

Up

C
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?

ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?

$13k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ended

2%

Yes

R
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

$57k Vol.
$13k Liq.
4
Ends in 7 months

2%

Yes

B
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

$4.2m Vol.
$419k Liq.
141
Ends in 7 months

50%

Democrats Sweep

C
ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

$598 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 10 days

9%

Yes

W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

92%

Yes

C
ChatGPT Outage by...?

ChatGPT Outage by...?

$25k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 17 days

63%

April 17

W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

$0 Vol.
$6k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months

82%

Yes

R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?

4%

Yes

D
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

$946.8m Vol.
$39.0m Liq.
🔥$10.4m today
629
Ends in over 2 years

24%

Gavin Newsom

A
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Economy · Politics

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

$8k Vol.
$8k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months

36%

Yes

R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?

18%

Yes

W
Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31?

5%

Jacky Rosen

W
Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

$557k Vol.
$23k Liq.
28
Ended

51%

December 31, 2026

2
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

$28k Vol.
$47k Liq.
Ends in 7 months

46%

Other