538 Approval Rating Predictions & Odds· 105 markets

44%
39.5–39.9

How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
$3k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$3k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in 9 months
13%
↑ 44%

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
$41k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$41k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in 9 months
36%
35%

19%
Up

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
$57k Vol.
$13k Liq.
4
Ends in 7 months
$57k Vol.$13k Liq.4Ends in 7 months
2%
Yes

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
$4.2m Vol.
$412k Liq.
140
Ends in 7 months
$4.2m Vol.$412k Liq.140Ends in 7 months
50%
Democrats Sweep

8%
Yes

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
$2k Vol.
$10k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$2k Vol.$10k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
92%
Yes

60%
April 17

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
$0 Vol.
$6k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$0 Vol.$6k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
82%
Yes

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
$15k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ended
$15k Vol.$6k Liq.Ended
4%
Yes

2026 U.S. House election: Republicans flip the Democrats by...?
$55k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ended
$55k Vol.$17k Liq.Ended
0%
Yes

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$944.9m Vol.
$38.5m Liq.
🔥$9.0m today
629
Ends in over 2 years
$944.9m Vol.🔥$9.0m today$38.5m Liq.629Ends in over 2 years
24%
Gavin Newsom

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?
$24k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ended
$24k Vol.$7k Liq.Ended
17%
Yes

Economy · Politics
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
$8k Vol.
$9k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$8k Vol.$9k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
36%
Yes

Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31?
$82k Vol.
$53k Liq.
1
Ended
$82k Vol.$53k Liq.1Ended
5%
Jacky Rosen

Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?
$557k Vol.
$25k Liq.
28
Ended
$557k Vol.$25k Liq.28Ended
51%
December 31, 2026

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
$28k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in 7 months
$28k Vol.$33k Liq.Ends in 7 months
46%
Other

Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$3k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$3k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 4 days
42%
60-79