538 Approval Rating Predictions & Odds· 105 markets

Trump approval rating on April 3?

Trump approval rating on April 3?

$46k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 4 days

44%

39.5–39.9

How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

$3k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

13%

↑ 44%

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

$41k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

36%

35%

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

$5k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 4 days

19%

Up

ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?

ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?

$13k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ended

2%

Yes

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

$57k Vol.
$13k Liq.
4
Ends in 7 months

2%

Yes

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

$4.2m Vol.
$412k Liq.
140
Ends in 7 months

50%

Democrats Sweep

ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

$354 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 10 days

8%

Yes

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

92%

Yes

ChatGPT Outage by...?

ChatGPT Outage by...?

$25k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 17 days

60%

April 17

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

$0 Vol.
$6k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months

82%

Yes

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

$944.9m Vol.
$38.5m Liq.
🔥$9.0m today
629
Ends in over 2 years

24%

Gavin Newsom

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?

17%

Yes

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Economy · Politics

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

$8k Vol.
$9k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months

36%

Yes

Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31?

5%

Jacky Rosen

Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

$557k Vol.
$25k Liq.
28
Ended

51%

December 31, 2026

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

$28k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in 7 months

46%

Other

Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

$3k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 4 days

42%

60-79