AI Technology Predictions & Odds· 130 markets
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$45k Vol.
$10k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$45k Vol.$10k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
18%
Yes
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
$57k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in almost 2 years
$57k Vol.$3k Liq.1Ends in almost 2 years
96%
SpaceX
IPOs before 2027?
$5.2m Vol.
$164k Liq.
🔥$56k today
2
Ends in 9 months
$5.2m Vol.🔥$56k today$164k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
93%
SpaceX
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$7k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$7k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$73k Vol.
$5k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$73k Vol.$5k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
44%
Yes
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?
$12k Vol.
$3k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$12k Vol.$3k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
35%
Yes
22%
December 31, 2026
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
$27k Vol.
$979 Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$27k Vol.$979 Liq.4Ends in 9 months
29%
Yes
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$13k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
2%
Yes
8%
Yes
Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?
$1k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 15 days
$1k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 15 days
83%
April 15
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
$241k Vol.
$8k Liq.
31
Ended
$241k Vol.$8k Liq.31Ended
44%
December 31, 2026
Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$12k Vol.
$47k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$12k Vol.$47k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
82%
Anthropic
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
$2.7m Vol.
$416k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$2.7m Vol.$416k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
91%
Anthropic
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
$70k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$70k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$801k Vol.
$132k Liq.
🔥$159k today
Ends in about 1 month
$801k Vol.🔥$159k today$132k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
84%
Anthropic
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
25%
Yes
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
$1.4m Vol.
$56k Liq.
🔥$70k today
24
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.🔥$70k today$56k Liq.24Ends in 3 months
28%
OpenAI
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$5k Liq.
12
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$5k Liq.12Ends in 9 months
47%
Head-mounted display