AI Technology Predictions & Odds· 125 markets
W
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$46k Vol.
$19k Liq.
3
Ends in 27 days
$46k Vol.$19k Liq.3Ends in 27 days
16%
Yes
W
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
$57k Vol.
$8k Liq.
1
Ends in over 1 year
$57k Vol.$8k Liq.1Ends in over 1 year
97%
SpaceX
I
94%
SpaceX
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$9k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$9k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$73k Vol.
$9k Liq.
7
Ends in 9 months
$73k Vol.$9k Liq.7Ends in 9 months
45%
Yes
A
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?
$12k Vol.
$4k Liq.
13
Ends in 9 months
$12k Vol.$4k Liq.13Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
A
20%
Yes
A
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
$27k Vol.
$4k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$27k Vol.$4k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
B
Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?
$19k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 12 days
$19k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 12 days
85%
April 15
W
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
$252k Vol.
$2k Liq.
31
Ended
$252k Vol.$2k Liq.31Ended
31%
Yes
O
77%
Yes
W
Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$15k Vol.
$64k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$15k Vol.$64k Liq.Ends in 27 days
85%
Anthropic
W
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
$71k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$71k Vol.$27k Liq.Ends in 3 months
10%
Yes
W
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
$3.2m Vol.
$589k Liq.
🔥$342k today
Ends in 27 days
$3.2m Vol.🔥$342k today$589k Liq.Ends in 27 days
94%
Anthropic
W
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$856k Vol.
$161k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$856k Vol.$161k Liq.Ends in 27 days
90%
Anthropic
O
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$102k Vol.
$9k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$102k Vol.$9k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
5%
Yes
W
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
$1.4m Vol.
$70k Liq.
24
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.$70k Liq.24Ends in 3 months
28%
OpenAI
W
Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$9k Vol.
$39k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$9k Vol.$39k Liq.Ends in 27 days
51%
W
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
$114k Vol.
$6k Liq.
12
Ends in 9 months
$114k Vol.$6k Liq.12Ends in 9 months
37%
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