Cognitive Test Predictions & Odds· 123 markets
I
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$146k Vol.
$22k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$146k Vol.$22k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
9%
Yes
S
57%
Super Heavy booster explodes?
U
16%
December 31, 2026
R
12%
December 31, 2026
W
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
$78k Vol.
$7k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$78k Vol.$7k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
N
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
$6k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$6k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in 9 months
9%
Yes
N
North Korea missile test/launch by April 15?
$2k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 13 days
$2k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in 13 days
40%
Yes
W
Who will testify to congress about Epstein?
$59k Vol.
$18k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$59k Vol.$18k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
18%
Lord Peter Mandelson
W
Who visited Epstein's Island?
$1.6m Vol.
$289k Liq.
120
Ends in 3 months
$1.6m Vol.$289k Liq.120Ends in 3 months
23%
Richard Branson
C
57%
June 30
W
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
$32k Vol.
$7k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$32k Vol.$7k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
26%
Yes
J
5%
Yes
W
cs2 · Esports
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by...?
$273k Vol.
$3k Liq.
24
Ended
$273k Vol.$3k Liq.24Ended
45%
June 30
M
Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?
$1.2m Vol.
$11k Liq.
29
Ended
$1.2m Vol.$11k Liq.29Ended
6%
Yes
W
Which cities will Waymo launch in by June 30?
$188k Vol.
$37k Liq.
12
Ends in 3 months
$188k Vol.$37k Liq.12Ends in 3 months
91%
Miami
H
How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30?
$133k Vol.
$32k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$133k Vol.$32k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
45%
12+
T
Trump · Fed Rates
Trump drops Powell investigation by…?
$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 3 months
67%
June 30
S
SBF released from custody in 2026?
$309k Vol.
$38k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$309k Vol.$38k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
W
counter strike 2 · Esports
Which maps will Valve Remove by June 30?
$707k Vol.
$1k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$707k Vol.$1k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
41%
Inferno
N
14%
Yes