Department Of War Predictions & Odds· 156 markets
W
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$46k Vol.
$14k Liq.
3
Ends in 28 days
$46k Vol.$14k Liq.3Ends in 28 days
16%
Yes
1
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$12k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$12k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
4%
Yes
M
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$140k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$140k Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
5
37%
Yes
1
7%
Yes
U
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
$1.5m Vol.
$13k Liq.
78
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.$13k Liq.78Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$12k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$12k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$5.2m Vol.
$205k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$5.2m Vol.$205k Liq.Ends in 9 months
7%
December 31
W
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?
$1.2m Vol.
$38k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$1.2m Vol.$38k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
2%
Yes
R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?
$5k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$5k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
17%
Yes
R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
$15k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ended
$15k Vol.$6k Liq.Ended
4%
Yes
R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?
$32k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ended
$32k Vol.$8k Liq.Ended
3%
Yes
P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
$648 Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$648 Vol.$25k Liq.Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes
P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
$9k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$9k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?
$73k Vol.
$36k Liq.
Ends in 28 days
$73k Vol.$36k Liq.Ends in 28 days
3%
Yes
U
9%
April 30
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$103k Vol.
$43k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$103k Vol.$43k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
54%
US x Iran Ceasefire
G
Gulf State military action against Iran by...?
$72k Vol.
$57k Liq.
2
Ends in 28 days
$72k Vol.$57k Liq.2Ends in 28 days
18%
April 30
I
Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?
$12k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 28 days
$12k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in 28 days
97%
April 1