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Department Of War Predictions & Odds· 156 markets

AllPoliticsSpaceXStrikeAliensScienceIranWeatherRussiaUkraineTrumpMiddle EastFedIsraelVenezuelaPutinSaudi ArabiaOilNasaAIZelenskyMilitary ActionsCultureQatarSpaceTechGeopoliticsVanceTrump PresidencyCabinetHegsethForeign PolicyWorldNatural DisasterBig TechAstroidUS IranTrump PutinTrump ZelenskyyDodUAEBahrainKuwaitOmanUkraine Peace DealClimate & ScienceClaudeFed ChairMilitary StrikesIran Offensive StrikesRegional SpilloverIran CeasefireU.S. X IranIsrael X IranDario Amodei
W
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?

Tech·Hegseth

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?

$46k Vol.
$12k Liq.
3
Ends in 28 days

16%

Yes

5
5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Climate & Science·astroid

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

$276k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

40%

Yes

1
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

Climate & Science·Science

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

$102k Vol.
$12k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months

5%

Yes

M
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Climate & Science·SpaceX

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

$140k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

19%

Yes

1
100kt meteor strike in 2026?

Climate & Science·Space

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

$6k Vol.
$4k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months

7%

Yes

U
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?

World·Trump-Zelenskyy

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?

$1.5m Vol.
$9k Liq.
78
Ends in 3 months

11%

Yes

U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

Politics·Trump-Putin

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

$582k Vol.
$7k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months

12%

Yes

W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

World·Trump Presidency

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$5.1m Vol.
$231k Liq.
🔥$169k today
Ends in 9 months

9%

December 31

W
Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?

Politics·Middle East

Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?

$569k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ended

7%

Yes

W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

Geopolitics·Trump

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

$35k Vol.
$10k Liq.
11
Ends in 28 days

25%

April 30

W
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?

Politics·Venezuela

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?

$1.2m Vol.
$38k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months

2%

Yes

R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?

Geopolitics·strike

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?

$3k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 1 day

30%

Yes

R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?

Geopolitics·Russia

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?

$15k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ended

4%

Yes

R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?

Geopolitics·Russia

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?

$31k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ended

1%

Yes

P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Politics·Hegseth

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

$8k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

16%

Yes

U
Ukraine hits Moscow by...?

Politics·Russia

Ukraine hits Moscow by...?

$140k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ended

13%

April 30

G
Gulf State military action against Iran by...?

Geopolitics·Israel x Iran

Gulf State military action against Iran by...?

$42k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in 28 days

22%

April 30

W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?

Geopolitics·Trump

What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?

$100k Vol.
$56k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months

56%

US x Iran Ceasefire

I
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

World·Middle East

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

$10.6m Vol.
$617k Liq.
🔥$1.4m today
352
Ended

88%

December 31

T
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Politics·Middle East

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

$9.7m Vol.
$309k Liq.
🔥$1.4m today
182
Ends in 3 months

79%

June 30