Disaster Predictions & Odds· 117 markets
N
30%
Yes
M
Weather · earthquake
Megaquake by June 30?
$37k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$37k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 3 months
24%
Yes
N
Natural Disaster · Science
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$329k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$329k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
42%
Yes
M
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$140k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$140k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
5
37%
Yes
M
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$38k Vol.
$19k Liq.
9
Ends in 12 months
$38k Vol.$19k Liq.9Ends in 12 months
11%
Yes
W
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
$12k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$12k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
7%
Yes
W
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$36k Vol.
$5k Liq.
4
Ends in about 2 months
$36k Vol.$5k Liq.4Ends in about 2 months
7%
Yes
H
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?
$1.8m Vol.
$58k Liq.
22
Ends in 3 months
$1.8m Vol.$58k Liq.22Ends in 3 months
86%
8+
H
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1.1m Vol.$31k Liq.Ends in 9 months
30%
14–16
H
How many Tornadoes in the US in March?
$183k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
$183k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in 7 days
100%
150+
H
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
$677k Vol.
$14k Liq.
9
Ends in 12 months
$677k Vol.$14k Liq.9Ends in 12 months
45%
1
9
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$174k Vol.
$15k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$174k Vol.$15k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
12%
Yes
W
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$315k Vol.
$7k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$315k Vol.$7k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
33%
Yes
1
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$530k Vol.
$27k Liq.
26
Ends in 9 months
$530k Vol.$27k Liq.26Ends in 9 months
6%
Yes
H
Natural Disasters · Weather
How many Tornadoes in the US in April?
$792 Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$792 Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
60%
350+
H
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
$46k Vol.
$10k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$46k Vol.$10k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
50%
1250+
M
51%
Yes
W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$43k Vol.
$12k Liq.
13
Ends in 27 days
$43k Vol.$12k Liq.13Ends in 27 days
17%
April 30
W
What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?
$539k Vol.
$15k Liq.
🔥$120k today
173
$539k Vol.🔥$120k today$15k Liq.173
15%
Yes