Fed Chair Predictions & Odds· 116 markets
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$45k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$45k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
50%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.7m Vol.
$1.9m Liq.
🔥$260k today
69
Ends in 7 months
$15.7m Vol.🔥$260k today$1.9m Liq.69Ends in 7 months
95%
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
$435k Vol.
$29k Liq.
11
Ends in about 2 months
$435k Vol.$29k Liq.11Ends in about 2 months
53%
May 15
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.8m Vol.
$166k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month
$1.8m Vol.$166k Liq.37Ends in about 1 month
2%
May 14
Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
$72k Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$72k Vol.$29k Liq.Ends in 3 months
94%
Thom Tillis
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
$65k Vol.
$32k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
$65k Vol.$32k Liq.1Ends in about 2 months
3%
Yes
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by March 31?
$0 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$0 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
53%
>5%
How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?
$211 Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$211 Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in 9 months
34%
54
Parlays · Hide From New
Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
$65k Vol.
$52k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$65k Vol.$52k Liq.Ends in 9 months
80%
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
$145k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in about 7 hours
$145k Vol.$12k Liq.2Ends in about 7 hours
100%
Yes
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
$10k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 29 days
$10k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in 29 days
45%
2
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$117k Vol.
$15k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$117k Vol.$15k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
70%
December 31
Trump · Fed Rates
Trump drops Powell investigation by…?
$4k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 3 months
65%
June 30
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?
$48k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$48k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
0%
Yes
83%
Pause–Pause–Pause
97%
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Pause
Fed Decision in July?
$2.7m Vol.
$261k Liq.
🔥$471k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.7m Vol.🔥$471k today$261k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
Fed decision in April?
$39.0m Vol.
$3.3m Liq.
🔥$2.0m today
21
Ends in 29 days
$39.0m Vol.🔥$2.0m today$3.3m Liq.21Ends in 29 days
97%
No change
Fed Decision in June?
$4.7m Vol.
$897k Liq.
🔥$214k today
13
Ends in 3 months
$4.7m Vol.🔥$214k today$897k Liq.13Ends in 3 months
88%
No change