Federal Reserve Predictions & Odds· 165 markets
Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
$36k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$36k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in 3 months
90%
John Kennedy
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by March 31?
$0 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 16 hours
$0 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 16 hours
53%
>5%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
$23k Vol.
$18k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$23k Vol.$18k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
23%
Yes
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$5k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$5k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$379k Liq.
🔥$502k today
5
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$502k today$379k Liq.5Ends in 8 months
33%
3.75%
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
$65k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
$65k Vol.$31k Liq.1Ends in about 2 months
3%
Yes
Fed decision in April?
$37.8m Vol.
$3.2m Liq.
🔥$1.6m today
18
Ends in 30 days
$37.8m Vol.🔥$1.6m today$3.2m Liq.18Ends in 30 days
97%
No change
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.6m Vol.
$1.8m Liq.
🔥$486k today
70
Ends in 7 months
$15.6m Vol.🔥$486k today$1.8m Liq.70Ends in 7 months
96%
Kevin Warsh
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$303k Liq.
🔥$440k today
15
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.🔥$440k today$303k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
60%
↓ 3.25%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.6m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$286k today
54
Ends in 9 months
$14.6m Vol.🔥$286k today$1.3m Liq.54Ends in 9 months
39%
0 (0 bps)
Fed Decision in June?
$4.6m Vol.
$864k Liq.
🔥$237k today
11
Ends in 3 months
$4.6m Vol.🔥$237k today$864k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
87%
No change
Fed Decision in July?
$2.3m Vol.
$272k Liq.
🔥$169k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.3m Vol.🔥$169k today$272k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
25%
Yes
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
$434k Vol.
$23k Liq.
11
Ends in about 2 months
$434k Vol.$23k Liq.11Ends in about 2 months
55%
May 15
62%
December Meeting
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
$1.6m Vol.
$260k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$1.6m Vol.$260k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
90%
SpaceX
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.8m Vol.
$166k Liq.
36
Ends in about 1 month
$1.8m Vol.$166k Liq.36Ends in about 1 month
2%
May 14
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
$70k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$70k Vol.$20k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$96k Vol.
$45k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$96k Vol.$45k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
44%
US x Iran Ceasefire
79%
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