Leadership Changes Predictions & Odds· 103 markets
34%
Yes
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$9.1m Vol.
$362k Liq.
🔥$595k today
205
Ends in 1 day
$9.1m Vol.🔥$595k today$362k Liq.205Ends in 1 day
44%
June 30
Iran leadership change by...?
$5.2m Vol.
$210k Liq.
🔥$118k today
885
Ends in 9 months
$5.2m Vol.🔥$118k today$210k Liq.885Ends in 9 months
53%
December 31
Geopolitics · World
Next leader out of power before 2027?
$3.4m Vol.
$506k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$3.4m Vol.$506k Liq.Ends in 9 months
60%
Orbán - Hungary PM
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain?
$115k Vol.
$11k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$115k Vol.$11k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$28k Vol.
$15k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$28k Vol.$15k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026?
$132k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$132k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
0%
Yes
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$28k Vol.
$12k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$28k Vol.$12k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
34%
Leadership Change
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
$116k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$116k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31?
$198k Vol.
$8k Liq.
6
Ends in about 13 hours
$198k Vol.$8k Liq.6Ends in about 13 hours
1%
Yes
Geopolitics · World
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
$1.7m Vol.
$79k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$1.7m Vol.$79k Liq.Ends in 3 months
3%
Yes
Politics
Will Schumer remain Minority Leader through March 31?
$9k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in about 13 hours
$9k Vol.$2k Liq.2Ends in about 13 hours
99%
Yes
Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?
$44k Vol.
$26k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
$44k Vol.$26k Liq.3Ends in 3 months
40%
June 30
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
$7.6m Vol.
$209k Liq.
705
Ends in 9 months
$7.6m Vol.$209k Liq.705Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes
Iran leader end of 2026?
$5.6m Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
71
Ends in 9 months
$5.6m Vol.$1.1m Liq.71Ends in 9 months
45%
Mojtaba Khamenei
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31?
$28k Vol.
$8k Liq.
1
Ends in about 13 hours
$28k Vol.$8k Liq.1Ends in about 13 hours
1%
Yes
EPL · Sports
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026?
$558 Vol.
$1k Liq.
5
Ends in 2 months
$558 Vol.$1k Liq.5Ends in 2 months
40%
Yes
Lecornu out as French PM by...?
$314k Vol.
$18k Liq.
111
Ends in 9 months
$314k Vol.$18k Liq.111Ends in 9 months
37%
December 31, 2026
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
$389k Vol.
$12k Liq.
16
Ends in about 13 hours
$389k Vol.$12k Liq.16Ends in about 13 hours
3%
Yes
17%
Isfahan nuclear facility