Macro Geopolitics Predictions & Odds· 125 markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
$1.5m Vol.
$88k Liq.
🔥$56k today
98
Ends in about 1 month
$1.5m Vol.🔥$56k today$88k Liq.98Ends in about 1 month
20%
Yes
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
$7.6m Vol.
$173k Liq.
705
Ends in 9 months
$7.6m Vol.$173k Liq.705Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
$193k Vol.
$42k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months
$193k Vol.$42k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
24%
Yes
33%
Yes
Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$3k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$3k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 4 days
41%
60-79
47%
Yes
Zelenskyy # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$16k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$16k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 1 day
73%
60-79
Zelenskyy # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$578 Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$578 Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 8 days
43%
60-79
Ukraine hits Moscow by...?
$139k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 15 hours
$139k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in about 15 hours
12%
April 30
17%
Isfahan nuclear facility
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$60k Vol.
$15k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
$60k Vol.$15k Liq.5Ends in 3 months
52%
Yes
Sports · Games
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Rei Sakamoto
$3k Vol.
$144k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
$3k Vol.$144k Liq.Ends in 7 days
64%
Marco Trungelliti
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
$701k Vol.
$112k Liq.
34
Ends in 9 months
$701k Vol.$112k Liq.34Ends in 9 months
34%
7
Khamenei # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$19k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$19k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in 4 days
92%
<20
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$28k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$28k Vol.$12k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
44%
April 30
Khamenei # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$25k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$25k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in 1 day
97%
<20
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?
$119k Vol.
$49k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$119k Vol.$49k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
71%
December 31
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
$15k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ended
$15k Vol.$5k Liq.Ended
4%
Yes
Khamenei # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$2k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$2k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 8 days
37%
<5