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Leadership Changes Predictions & Odds· 103 markets

AllPoliticsIranBusinessTrumpMiddle EastSouth KoreaCanadaVenezuelaStrait Of HormuzSaudi ArabiaWorld AffairsCultureUkFranceMcdonald'sGeopoliticsMacro GeopoliticsWorldCanadian ElectionKhameneiEarn 4%BahrainWhite HousePierreMbsCubaHFCIran RegimeRegional SpilloverIran CeasefireU.S. X IranAyatollahKing Of BahrainBurgerMojtabaMojtaba KhameneiMiguel Diaz CanelPCCCommunist Party Of CubaOverthrowCastroKhamenei OutMojtaba OutKharg Island
C
Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Geopolitics·Cuba

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

$130k Vol.
$27k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months

33%

Yes

K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Politics·Khamenei

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$11.2m Vol.
$455k Liq.
🔥$572k today
233
Ended

28%

June 30

I
Iran leadership change by...?

Politics·Mojtaba

Iran leadership change by...?

$6.0m Vol.
$287k Liq.
🔥$216k today
892
Ends in 9 months

33%

December 31

N
Next leader out of power before 2027?

Geopolitics · World

Next leader out of power before 2027?

$3.5m Vol.
$414k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

64%

Orbán - Hungary PM

H
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain?

Geopolitics·Regional Spillover

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain?

$120k Vol.
$19k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months

11%

Yes

M
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

Geopolitics·mbs

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$2k Vol.
$30k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

25%

September 30

J
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026?

Politics·South Korea

Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026?

$501 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

72%

Yes

I
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?

Geopolitics·Iran Ceasefire

Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?

$30k Vol.
$11k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months

22%

Leadership Change

P
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Politics·Pierre

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

$117k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

14%

Yes

X
Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Geopolitics · World

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

$1.7m Vol.
$73k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

2%

Yes

G
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?

Geopolitics·Venezuela

Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?

$154k Vol.
$36k Liq.
16
Ends in 3 months

94%

December 31

N
Next CEO of Lululemon?

Culture·Business

Next CEO of Lululemon?

$47k Vol.
$2k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months

40%

Jon McNeill

D
Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?

Politics·Canada

Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?

$15 Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

14%

Yes

L
Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?

Politics·uk

Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?

$59k Vol.
$5k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months

37%

Yes

X
Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Geopolitics·world affairs

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

$7.7m Vol.
$295k Liq.
🔥$57k today
705
Ends in 9 months

8%

Yes

I
Iran leader end of 2026?

World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

$5.8m Vol.
$961k Liq.
🔥$89k today
72
Ends in 9 months

66%

Mojtaba Khamenei

S
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?

Politics·Trump

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?

$20 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

33%

Yes

M
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Politics·Venezuela

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

$960k Vol.
$46k Liq.
47
Ends in 3 months

56%

December 31

M
McDonald's CEO out by June 30?

Culture·burger

McDonald's CEO out by June 30?

$8k Vol.
$2k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months

6%

Yes

L
Lecornu out as French PM by...?

Politics·France

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

$315k Vol.
$18k Liq.
111
Ends in 9 months

37%

December 31, 2026