Leadership Changes Predictions & Odds· 103 markets
34%
Yes
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$9.5m Vol.
$370k Liq.
🔥$579k today
215
Ends in about 22 hours
$9.5m Vol.🔥$579k today$370k Liq.215Ends in about 22 hours
38%
June 30
Iran leadership change by...?
$5.3m Vol.
$276k Liq.
🔥$152k today
888
Ends in 9 months
$5.3m Vol.🔥$152k today$276k Liq.888Ends in 9 months
45%
December 31
Geopolitics · World
Next leader out of power before 2027?
$3.4m Vol.
$359k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$3.4m Vol.$359k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
60%
Orbán - Hungary PM
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain?
$115k Vol.
$11k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$115k Vol.$11k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$30k Vol.
$14k Liq.
4
Ends in 30 days
$30k Vol.$14k Liq.4Ends in 30 days
39%
April 30
0%
Yes
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$29k Vol.
$9k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$29k Vol.$9k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
38%
Leadership Change
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
$116k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$116k Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in 9 months
16%
Yes
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31?
$199k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ended
$199k Vol.$12k Liq.Ended
0%
Yes
Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?
$0 Vol.
$124 Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$124 Liq.Ends in 9 months
48%
Yes
Geopolitics · World
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
$1.7m Vol.
$67k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$1.7m Vol.$67k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
3%
Yes
Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?
$45k Vol.
$17k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
$45k Vol.$17k Liq.3Ends in 3 months
38%
June 30
Politics
Will Schumer remain Minority Leader through March 31?
$9k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ended
$9k Vol.$2k Liq.2Ended
99%
Yes
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
$7.6m Vol.
$174k Liq.
706
Ends in 9 months
$7.6m Vol.$174k Liq.706Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes
Iran leader end of 2026?
$5.6m Vol.
$806k Liq.
71
Ends in 9 months
$5.6m Vol.$806k Liq.71Ends in 9 months
54%
Mojtaba Khamenei
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31?
$28k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ended
$28k Vol.$5k Liq.Ended
0%
Yes
EPL · Sports
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026?
$684 Vol.
$3k Liq.
5
Ends in 2 months
$684 Vol.$3k Liq.5Ends in 2 months
46%
Yes
Lecornu out as French PM by...?
$314k Vol.
$16k Liq.
112
Ends in 9 months
$314k Vol.$16k Liq.112Ends in 9 months
37%
December 31, 2026
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
$391k Vol.
$13k Liq.
18
Ended
$391k Vol.$13k Liq.18Ended
50%
June 30, 2026