Campaign Promises Predictions & Odds· 168 markets

P
Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

$8k Vol.
$61k Liq.
Ends in 10 days

47%

Keiko Fujimori 5%+

W
Will Ken Paxton drop out?

Will Ken Paxton drop out?

$5k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months

4%

Yes

W
West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner

West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner

$146k Vol.
$74k Liq.
12
Ends in 27 days

82%

AITC

M
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store  by June 30?

Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?

$213k Vol.
$18k Liq.
62
Ends in 3 months

8%

Yes

W
Will Valve add first CS2 operation by April 1, 2026?

cs2 · counter strike 2

Will Valve add first CS2 operation by April 1, 2026?

$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ended

0%

Yes

A
Assam Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Assam Legislative Assembly Election Winner

$11k Vol.
$61k Liq.
1
Ends in 7 days

94%

BJP

T
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?

$5.1m Vol.
$0 Liq.
234
Ended

No

T
Trump declassifies UFO files in first 100 days?

Trump declassifies UFO files in first 100 days?

$349k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

No

T
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?

Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?

$1.1m Vol.
$0 Liq.
45
Ended

Yes

T
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1?

Trump deportation executive order on Day 1?

$380k Vol.
$0 Liq.
79
Ended

Yes

W
Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days?

$19.9m Vol.
$0 Liq.
868
Ended

Ross Ulbricht

H
How many Jan 6th protestors will Trump pardon in his first 100 days?

1,250-1,499

W
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?

No

T
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?

Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?

$3.0m Vol.
$0 Liq.
419
Ended

No

T
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?

Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?

$3.0m Vol.
$0 Liq.
177
Ended

Yes

T
Trump signs national abortion ban?

Trump signs national abortion ban?

$1.4m Vol.
$0 Liq.
118
Ended

No

W
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?

Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?

$1.8m Vol.
$0 Liq.
84
Ended

No

T
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?

Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?

$1.2m Vol.
$0 Liq.
33
Ended

Yes

T
Trump deportation executive order in first 100 days?

Yes