Debt Ceiling Predictions & Odds· 109 markets
Politics · Economy
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$15k Vol.
$23k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$15k Vol.$23k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
Politics · Economy
Peak US National Debt before 2027?
$9k Vol.
$21k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$9k Vol.$21k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
93%
$40 trillion
Economy · Politics
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
$8k Vol.
$8k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$8k Vol.$8k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
36%
Yes
World · Economy
EU debt downgrade before 2027?
$749 Vol.
$230 Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$749 Vol.$230 Liq.2Ends in 9 months
30%
Yes
Politics · Economy
Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?
$414 Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$414 Vol.$1k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
61%
Yes
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$6k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
82%
Pause–Pause–Pause
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$30k Vol.
$15k Liq.
4
Ends in 30 days
$30k Vol.$15k Liq.4Ends in 30 days
39%
April 30
97%
Pause–Pause–Pause
24%
Isfahan nuclear facility
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
$254k Vol.
$20k Liq.
11
Ends in 7 months
$254k Vol.$20k Liq.11Ends in 7 months
83%
Shutdown & Democratic Party
Culture · Politics
Taliban blackmail of D.C. shooter confirmed by March 31?
$3k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ended
$3k Vol.$2k Liq.2Ended
3%
Yes
What price will BNB hit in March?
$282k Vol.
$136k Liq.
1
Ends in 1 day
$282k Vol.$136k Liq.1Ends in 1 day
1%
↓ 500
White House # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$173k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$173k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
89%
160-179
What price will Chainlink hit in March?
$192k Vol.
$83k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$192k Vol.$83k Liq.Ends in 1 day
33%
↓ 8
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$13k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$13k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?
$75k Vol.
$96k Liq.
14
Ends in 9 months
$75k Vol.$96k Liq.14Ends in 9 months
16%
Dong Jun
Geopolitics · World
Next leader out of power before 2027?
$3.4m Vol.
$388k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$3.4m Vol.$388k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
60%
Orbán - Hungary PM
White House # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$53k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$53k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 4 days
41%
160-179
What price will Bitcoin hit in March?
$98.0m Vol.
$5.8m Liq.
🔥$2.2m today
3
Ends in 1 day
$98.0m Vol.🔥$2.2m today$5.8m Liq.3Ends in 1 day
1%
↓ 60,000