Emmett Shear Predictions & Odds· 102 markets
How late will Leavitt be to the next press briefing?
$0 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$0 Vol.$1k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
42%
20 - 25 minutes
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
$19 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$19 Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
73%
Go ahead 5+ times
How late will Leavitt be to the next press briefing?
$8k Vol.
$10k Liq.
1
Ends in about 4 hours
$8k Vol.$10k Liq.1Ends in about 4 hours
90%
25 - 30 minutes
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
$46k Vol.
$47k Liq.
Ends in about 4 hours
$46k Vol.$47k Liq.Ends in about 4 hours
100%
Travel
NCAA Tournament: Number of Rothstein “This is March” tweets
$28k Vol.
$1k Liq.
4
Ends in 7 days
$28k Vol.$1k Liq.4Ends in 7 days
35%
81+
49%
June 30
Claude Mythos released by…?
$42k Vol.
$13k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
$42k Vol.$13k Liq.1Ends in about 1 month
70%
June 30
What will Trump say this week? (April 5)
$4k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
$4k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in 5 days
86%
Sunday
What will Trump say in April?
$16k Vol.
$33k Liq.
11
Ends in about 1 month
$16k Vol.$33k Liq.11Ends in about 1 month
93%
Jesus
What will Trump post this week? (March 30 - April 5)
$7k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
$7k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 5 days
77%
Happy Easter
SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?
$20k Vol.
$4k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$20k Vol.$4k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
70%
Yes
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by March 31?
$0 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 4 hours
$0 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 4 hours
53%
>5%
Anyone charged for doxing Delta Force commander heading Maduro grab by March 31?
$3k Vol.
$491 Liq.
2
Ends in about 4 hours
$3k Vol.$491 Liq.2Ends in about 4 hours
2%
Yes
Claude 5 released by…?
$2.9m Vol.
$66k Liq.
163
Ends in about 1 month
$2.9m Vol.$66k Liq.163Ends in about 1 month
73%
June 30, 2026
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?
$733k Vol.
$9k Liq.
147
Ends in about 4 hours
$733k Vol.$9k Liq.147Ends in about 4 hours
1%
Yes
Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
$56k Vol.
$939 Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$56k Vol.$939 Liq.11Ends in 3 months
56%
Yes
OpenAI · ceo
Emmett Shear still CEO of OpenAI by end of week?
$85k Vol.
$0 Liq.
29
Ended
$85k Vol.$0 Liq.29Ended
No
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?
$2.3m Vol.
$0 Liq.
203
Ends in about 4 hours
$2.3m Vol.$0 Liq.203Ends in about 4 hours
Yes
Mentions · Politics
What will Karoline Leavitt say during next White House press briefing?
$6k Vol.
$0 Liq.
6
Ended
$6k Vol.$0 Liq.6Ended
Common Sense
Mentions · Politics
What will Karoline Leavitt say during next White House press briefing?
$20k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$20k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
Go ahead