Fed Predictions & Odds· 1939 markets
Fed decision in April?
$38.5m Vol.
$3.4m Liq.
🔥$1.9m today
18
Ends in 29 days
$38.5m Vol.🔥$1.9m today$3.4m Liq.18Ends in 29 days
97%
No change
Fed Decision in July?
$2.5m Vol.
$255k Liq.
🔥$303k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.5m Vol.🔥$303k today$255k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$279k today
58
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$279k today$1.2m Liq.58Ends in 9 months
37%
0 (0 bps)
Fed Decision in June?
$4.6m Vol.
$907k Liq.
🔥$193k today
11
Ends in 3 months
$4.6m Vol.🔥$193k today$907k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
87%
No change
24%
Yes
83%
Pause–Pause–Pause
97%
Pause–Pause–Pause
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
$10k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 29 days
$10k Vol.$20k Liq.Ends in 29 days
47%
2
73%
Pause–Pause–Pause
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by March 31?
$0 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$0 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
53%
>5%
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$377k Liq.
🔥$363k today
8
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$363k today$377k Liq.8Ends in 8 months
34%
3.75%
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.7m Vol.
$1.9m Liq.
🔥$363k today
72
Ends in 7 months
$15.7m Vol.🔥$363k today$1.9m Liq.72Ends in 7 months
96%
Kevin Warsh
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$247k Liq.
🔥$281k today
18
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.🔥$281k today$247k Liq.18Ends in 9 months
64%
↓ 3.25%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
$435k Vol.
$21k Liq.
11
Ends in about 2 months
$435k Vol.$21k Liq.11Ends in about 2 months
53%
May 15
64%
December Meeting
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.8m Vol.
$140k Liq.
36
Ends in about 1 month
$1.8m Vol.$140k Liq.36Ends in about 1 month
2%
May 14
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
$70k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$70k Vol.$20k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
21%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$34k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$34k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
51%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$117k Vol.
$22k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$117k Vol.$22k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
71%
December 31
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
$65k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
$65k Vol.$31k Liq.1Ends in about 2 months
3%
Yes