Fed Predictions & Odds· 1951 markets
F
Fed decision in April?
$45.9m Vol.
$4.4m Liq.
🔥$2.2m today
39
Ends in 26 days
$45.9m Vol.🔥$2.2m today$4.4m Liq.39Ends in 26 days
98%
No change
H
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$15.4m Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
🔥$141k today
61
Ends in 9 months
$15.4m Vol.🔥$141k today$1.1m Liq.61Ends in 9 months
32%
0 (0 bps)
F
Fed Decision in June?
$5.2m Vol.
$995k Liq.
🔥$81k today
22
Ends in 3 months
$5.2m Vol.🔥$81k today$995k Liq.22Ends in 3 months
90%
No change
F
80%
No change
F
14%
Yes
F
98%
Pause–Pause–Pause
H
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
$11k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 26 days
$11k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 26 days
42%
2
F
84%
Pause–Pause–Pause
F
75%
Pause–Pause–Pause
J
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by March 31?
$0 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ended
$0 Vol.$3k Liq.Ended
53%
>5%
W
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$18.0m Vol.
$1.8m Liq.
🔥$1.1m today
74
Ends in 7 months
$18.0m Vol.🔥$1.1m today$1.8m Liq.74Ends in 7 months
96%
Kevin Warsh
F
64%
December Meeting
J
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.9m Vol.
$41k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month
$1.9m Vol.$41k Liq.37Ends in about 1 month
1%
Yes
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$103k Vol.
$58k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$103k Vol.$58k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
54%
US x Iran Ceasefire
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$6.0m Vol.
$291k Liq.
7
Ends in 8 months
$6.0m Vol.$291k Liq.7Ends in 8 months
26%
3.5%
F
27%
October Meeting
W
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$216k Liq.
20
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.$216k Liq.20Ends in 9 months
67%
↓ 3.25%
K
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
$438k Vol.
$46k Liq.
11
Ends in about 1 month
$438k Vol.$46k Liq.11Ends in about 1 month
51%
May 15
K
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
$66k Vol.
$33k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
$66k Vol.$33k Liq.1Ends in about 1 month
2%
Yes
J
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$118k Vol.
$18k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$118k Vol.$18k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
70%
December 31