Federal Reserve Predictions & Odds· 144 markets
Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
$72k Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$72k Vol.$29k Liq.Ends in 3 months
94%
Thom Tillis
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by March 31?
$0 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$0 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
53%
>5%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
$24k Vol.
$18k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$24k Vol.$18k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
24%
Yes
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$5k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$5k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$338k Liq.
🔥$224k today
8
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$224k today$338k Liq.8Ends in 8 months
38%
3.75%
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
$65k Vol.
$32k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
$65k Vol.$32k Liq.1Ends in about 2 months
3%
Yes
Fed decision in April?
$39.0m Vol.
$3.3m Liq.
🔥$2.0m today
21
Ends in 29 days
$39.0m Vol.🔥$2.0m today$3.3m Liq.21Ends in 29 days
97%
No change
Fed Decision in July?
$2.7m Vol.
$260k Liq.
🔥$468k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.7m Vol.🔥$468k today$260k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$275k today
58
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$275k today$1.2m Liq.58Ends in 9 months
34%
0 (0 bps)
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.7m Vol.
$1.9m Liq.
🔥$260k today
69
Ends in 7 months
$15.7m Vol.🔥$260k today$1.9m Liq.69Ends in 7 months
95%
Kevin Warsh
Fed Decision in June?
$4.7m Vol.
$897k Liq.
🔥$221k today
13
Ends in 3 months
$4.7m Vol.🔥$221k today$897k Liq.13Ends in 3 months
88%
No change
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$208k Liq.
🔥$180k today
17
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.🔥$180k today$208k Liq.17Ends in 9 months
64%
↓ 3.25%
Fed rate hike in 2026?
$701k Vol.
$44k Liq.
🔥$51k today
26
Ends in 8 months
$701k Vol.🔥$51k today$44k Liq.26Ends in 8 months
22%
Yes
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
$435k Vol.
$29k Liq.
11
Ends in about 2 months
$435k Vol.$29k Liq.11Ends in about 2 months
53%
May 15
64%
December Meeting
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
$74k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$74k Vol.$20k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
$1.6m Vol.
$266k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$1.6m Vol.$266k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
90%
SpaceX
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.8m Vol.
$166k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month
$1.8m Vol.$166k Liq.37Ends in about 1 month
2%
May 14
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?
$10k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 11 months
$10k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 11 months
80%
Up
83%
Pause–Pause–Pause