Foreign Affairs Predictions & Odds· 105 markets
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?
$9k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$9k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in 30 days
18%
April 30
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$12k Liq.
38
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$12k Liq.38Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?
$177k Vol.
$16k Liq.
🔥$56k today
22
Ended
$177k Vol.🔥$56k today$16k Liq.22Ended
0%
Yes
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
$1.5m Vol.
$36k Liq.
79
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.$36k Liq.79Ends in 3 months
14%
June 30
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$30k Vol.
$12k Liq.
4
Ends in 30 days
$30k Vol.$12k Liq.4Ends in 30 days
41%
April 30
22%
Isfahan nuclear facility
46%
Yes
30%
June 30
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
$600k Vol.
$24k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$600k Vol.$24k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
11%
December 31, 2026
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
$153k Vol.
$13k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$153k Vol.$13k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
$1.7m Vol.
$39k Liq.
34
Ends in 9 months
$1.7m Vol.$39k Liq.34Ends in 9 months
16%
December 31, 2026
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$100k Vol.
$18k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$18k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
$58k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$58k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 9 months
20%
Yes
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
$717k Vol.
$92k Liq.
35
Ends in 9 months
$717k Vol.$92k Liq.35Ends in 9 months
34%
7
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
$372k Vol.
$168k Liq.
10
Ends in 3 months
$372k Vol.$168k Liq.10Ends in 3 months
55%
Pakistan
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?
$105k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ended
$105k Vol.$24k Liq.Ended
0%
Yes
Will any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?
$45k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ended
$45k Vol.$16k Liq.2Ended
0%
Yes
Will Vance visit the Middle East by..?
$101k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$101k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in 30 days
15%
April 10