Macro Fed Predictions & Odds· 122 markets
Fed rate hike in 2026?
$702k Vol.
$46k Liq.
🔥$52k today
27
Ends in 8 months
$702k Vol.🔥$52k today$46k Liq.27Ends in 8 months
21%
Yes
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$193k Liq.
🔥$111k today
17
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.🔥$111k today$193k Liq.17Ends in 9 months
64%
↓ 3.25%
56%
$2.25–2.50
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?
$10k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 11 months
$10k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 11 months
83%
Up
Will SOFR hit __ in March?
$6k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$6k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
56%
↑3.72%
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in February, 2026?
$6k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$6k Vol.$1k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
7%
Up
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026?
$0 Vol.
$129 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$0 Vol.$129 Liq.Ends in about 1 month
82%
Up
82%
Pause–Pause–Pause
75%
Pause–Pause–Pause
97%
Pause–Pause–Pause
Fed Decision in July?
$2.8m Vol.
$253k Liq.
🔥$513k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.8m Vol.🔥$513k today$253k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.7m Vol.
$1.7m Liq.
🔥$213k today
69
Ends in 7 months
$15.7m Vol.🔥$213k today$1.7m Liq.69Ends in 7 months
95%
Kevin Warsh
Fed Decision in June?
$4.7m Vol.
$745k Liq.
🔥$166k today
13
Ends in 3 months
$4.7m Vol.🔥$166k today$745k Liq.13Ends in 3 months
88%
No change
Parlays · Hide From New
Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
$65k Vol.
$50k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$65k Vol.$50k Liq.Ends in 9 months
80%
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by March 31?
$0 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$0 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
53%
>5%
Fed decision in April?
$39.1m Vol.
$3.5m Liq.
🔥$2.1m today
22
Ends in 29 days
$39.1m Vol.🔥$2.1m today$3.5m Liq.22Ends in 29 days
97%
No change
How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?
$211 Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$211 Vol.$14k Liq.Ends in 9 months
35%
60+
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.8m Vol.
$134k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month
$1.8m Vol.$134k Liq.37Ends in about 1 month
2%
May 14
Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
$72k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$72k Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in 3 months
94%
Thom Tillis
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
$145k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in about 5 hours
$145k Vol.$12k Liq.2Ends in about 5 hours
100%
Yes