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National Bureau Of Economic Research Predictions & Odds· 103 markets

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U
US recession by end of 2026?

Economy·Economic Policy

US recession by end of 2026?

$926k Vol.
$78k Liq.
52
Ends in 10 months

36%

Yes

M
March Unemployment Rate

Economy·NFP

March Unemployment Rate

$40k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in 3 days

29%

4.4%

F
Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Economy·Fed

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

$715k Vol.
$117k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months

84%

Pause–Pause–Pause

F
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Economy·Fed

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

$2k Vol.
$136k Liq.
Ends in 4 months

74%

Pause–Pause–Pause

U
US Trade Deficit in 2026?

Economy·Trump

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

$1k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 11 months

34%

800–900B

C
China Annual Inflation 2026

Economy·Macro Indicators

China Annual Inflation 2026

$30k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

29%

<-1.0%

T
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 20​26?

Tech·Macro Indicators

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 20​26?

$0 Vol.
$143 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month

82%

Up

G
GDP growth in 2026

Economy·Economic Policy

GDP growth in 2026

$25k Vol.
$16k Liq.
8
Ends in 10 months

61%

>2.5%

H
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

Economy·NFP

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

$336k Vol.
$22k Liq.
17
Ends in 9 months

64%

5.0%

F
February Unemployment Rate - Japan

Economy·unemployment

February Unemployment Rate - Japan

$42k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ended

100%

2.6%

F
Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Economy·Economic Policy

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

$392k Vol.
$95k Liq.
23
Ends in 29 days

97%

Pause–Pause–Pause

T
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in February, 20​26?

Tech·AI

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in February, 20​26?

$6k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ended

5%

Up

W
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

Economy·Canada

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

$5k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in 11 months

12%

Yes

B
Bank of Israel Decision in July?

Economy·Israel

Bank of Israel Decision in July?

$0 Vol.
$195 Liq.
Ends in 3 months

50%

No Change

B
Bank of Mexico Decision in June

Economy·Global Rates

Bank of Mexico Decision in June

$0 Vol.
$24 Liq.
Ends in 3 months

48%

Increase

M
Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

Economy·Inflation

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

$34k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

33%

4.00% to 4.49%

U
US recession in 2025?

Economy·Business

US recession in 2025?

$11.7m Vol.
$0 Liq.
710
Ended

No

U
U.S. recession before May 2025?

Economy·National Bureau of Economic Research

U.S. recession before May 2025?

$859k Vol.
$0 Liq.
25
Ended

No

J
January Unemployment Rate - Mexico

Economy·Macro Indicators

January Unemployment Rate - Mexico

$7k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

≥2.7%

F
February Unemployment Rate - Mexico

Economy·unemployment

February Unemployment Rate - Mexico

$51k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

2.6%