National Bureau Of Economic Research Predictions & Odds· 103 markets
U
US recession by end of 2026?
$926k Vol.
$78k Liq.
52
Ends in 10 months
$926k Vol.$78k Liq.52Ends in 10 months
36%
Yes
M
29%
4.4%
F
84%
Pause–Pause–Pause
F
74%
Pause–Pause–Pause
U
34%
800–900B
C
29%
<-1.0%
N
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$16k Vol.
$8k Liq.
11
Ends in 10 months
$16k Vol.$8k Liq.11Ends in 10 months
15%
Yes
F
100%
2.6%
F
97%
Pause–Pause–Pause
B
96%
No Change
B
Bank of Korea decision in May?
$11k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$11k Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
62%
No Change
#
# of seats won by DP in South Korea by-elections?
$20k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
$20k Vol.$25k Liq.Ends in 2 months
56%
10+
B
50%
Decrease
B
50%
No Change
B
Bank of Brazil Decision in April?
$176k Vol.
$25k Liq.
1
Ends in 28 days
$176k Vol.$25k Liq.1Ends in 28 days
82%
Decrease
W
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?
$5k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in 11 months
$5k Vol.$2k Liq.2Ends in 11 months
12%
Yes
B
Bank of Israel Decision in May?
$11k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$11k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
82%
No Change
B
92%
Decrease