Tech Policy Predictions & Odds· 110 markets
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$45k Vol.
$10k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$45k Vol.$10k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
17%
Yes
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?
$7k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$7k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$13k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
2%
Yes
8%
Yes
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$73k Vol.
$6k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$73k Vol.$6k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
44%
Yes
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026?
$0 Vol.
$149 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$0 Vol.$149 Liq.Ends in about 1 month
82%
Up
45%
Yes
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in February, 2026?
$6k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$6k Vol.$1k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
9%
Up
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?
$10k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 11 months
$10k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 11 months
80%
Up
10%
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?
$12k Vol.
$3k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$12k Vol.$3k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
35%
Yes
White House # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$52k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$52k Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in 4 days
42%
160-179
White House # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$154k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 21 hours
$154k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in about 21 hours
71%
160-179
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$13k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$13k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
42%
April 30
1%
Yes
Games · NCAA
Miami Hurricanes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (W)
$3k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$3k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
22%
December 31, 2026