Aid Package Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

20%
June 30

45%
Yes

17%
Isfahan nuclear facility

93%
April 30

US announces military support of Iran opposition by...?
$233k Vol.
$18k Liq.
10
Ends in about 1 month
$233k Vol.$18k Liq.10Ends in about 1 month
8%
April 30

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$16k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$100k Vol.
$15k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$15k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes

US announces military support of Kurds by...?
$482k Vol.
$10k Liq.
40
Ends in about 1 month
$482k Vol.$10k Liq.40Ends in about 1 month
17%
April 30

What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
$3k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$3k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
90%
Strait of Hormuz

MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
$14.0m Vol.
$439k Liq.
256
Ends in 3 months
$14.0m Vol.$439k Liq.256Ends in 3 months
44%
>$600M

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
$328k Vol.
$20k Liq.
36
Ends in 3 months
$328k Vol.$20k Liq.36Ends in 3 months
50%
Yes

"I beat Bush" Epstein Email Sender confirmed as ___ ?
$3k Vol.
$14k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$3k Vol.$14k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
69%
Not revealed in 2026

Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?
$20k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 15 days
$20k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 15 days
49%
April 15

11%
December 31, 2026

60%
Super Heavy booster explodes?

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
$15k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ended
$15k Vol.$5k Liq.Ended
4%
Yes

How late will Leavitt be to the next press briefing?
$1k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in about 7 hours
$1k Vol.$6k Liq.1Ends in about 7 hours
44%
<15 minutes

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$6k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
