Federal Government Predictions & Odds· 1096 markets
O
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$102k Vol.
$9k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$102k Vol.$9k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
6%
Yes
W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
$35k Vol.
$25k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$35k Vol.$25k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
A
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
$254k Vol.
$25k Liq.
11
Ends in 7 months
$254k Vol.$25k Liq.11Ends in 7 months
84%
Shutdown & Democratic Party
W
Which companies will the US take a stake in?
$78k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$78k Vol.$20k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
51%
Palantir
U
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?
$2.6m Vol.
$135k Liq.
🔥$97k today
131
Ended
$2.6m Vol.🔥$97k today$135k Liq.131Ended
23%
April 30
W
Who visited Epstein's Island?
$1.6m Vol.
$350k Liq.
121
Ends in 3 months
$1.6m Vol.$350k Liq.121Ends in 3 months
23%
Richard Branson
U
US military draft authorized in 2026?
$86k Vol.
$21k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$86k Vol.$21k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
11%
Yes
W
Will Putin visit China by May 31?
$4k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$4k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
73%
Yes
W
1%
Yes
W
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
$409k Vol.
$122k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$409k Vol.$122k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
63%
Kristi Noem
W
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?
$226k Vol.
$39k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$226k Vol.$39k Liq.Ends in 3 months
4%
Yes
W
Will Tim Walz resign by...?
$2.5m Vol.
$47k Liq.
43
Ends in 3 months
$2.5m Vol.$47k Liq.43Ends in 3 months
8%
Before 2027
T
Tucker Carlson federally charged?
$23k Vol.
$32k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$23k Vol.$32k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
7%
Yes
T
Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April?
$971 Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$971 Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in 27 days
90%
Yes
W
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
$650k Vol.
$35k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$650k Vol.$35k Liq.Ends in 9 months
12%
Yes
A
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?
$28k Vol.
$13k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$28k Vol.$13k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
12%
Yes
W
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$46k Vol.
$20k Liq.
3
Ends in 27 days
$46k Vol.$20k Liq.3Ends in 27 days
16%
Yes
W
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
$409k Vol.
$131k Liq.
21
Ends in 9 months
$409k Vol.$131k Liq.21Ends in 9 months
7%
Yes
U
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel?
$11k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$11k Vol.$20k Liq.Ends in 3 months
31%
Yes
U
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?
$51k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$51k Vol.$25k Liq.Ends in 3 months
35%
Yes