Humanitarian Aid Predictions & Odds· 121 markets
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$64.1m Vol.
$1.4m Liq.
🔥$3.2m today
1,263
$64.1m Vol.🔥$3.2m today$1.4m Liq.1,263
72%
December 31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$29.5m Vol.
$389k Liq.
🔥$557k today
20,364
Ends in about 5 hours
$29.5m Vol.🔥$557k today$389k Liq.20,364Ends in about 5 hours
0%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$476k Liq.
🔥$76k today
5,427
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$76k today$476k Liq.5,427Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$225k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1.1m Vol.$225k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$56k Vol.
$8k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
$56k Vol.$8k Liq.7Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.7m Vol.
$324k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$3.7m Vol.$324k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$388k Vol.
$42k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$388k Vol.$42k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
39%
June 30
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$64k Vol.
$12k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$64k Vol.$12k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
42%
Yes
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
$67k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$67k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
$185k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$185k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
$413k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$413k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
30%
June 30
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$32k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$32k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
47%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$29k Vol.
$13k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$29k Vol.$13k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
39%
Leadership Change
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?
$126k Vol.
$9k Liq.
26
Ends in about 5 hours
$126k Vol.$9k Liq.26Ends in about 5 hours
1%
Yes
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
$385k Vol.
$39k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$385k Vol.$39k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
0%
Yes
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$55k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$55k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31, 2026
45%
Yes
13%
Isfahan nuclear facility