Macro Geopolitics Predictions & Odds· 130 markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
$1.6m Vol.
$65k Liq.
🔥$93k today
102
Ends in about 1 month
$1.6m Vol.🔥$93k today$65k Liq.102Ends in about 1 month
25%
Yes
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
$7.6m Vol.
$168k Liq.
706
Ends in 9 months
$7.6m Vol.$168k Liq.706Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
$193k Vol.
$33k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months
$193k Vol.$33k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
24%
Yes
27%
Yes
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?
$362k Vol.
$101k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$362k Vol.$101k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
4%
June 30
NYC Mayor # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$16k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$16k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 4 days
60%
20-39
Geopolitics · World
Next leader out of power before 2027?
$3.4m Vol.
$392k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$3.4m Vol.$392k Liq.Ends in 9 months
60%
Orbán - Hungary PM
White House # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$12k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$12k Vol.$27k Liq.Ends in 8 days
38%
160-179
NYC Mayor # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$942 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$942 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 8 days
47%
20-39
NYC Mayor # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$20k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 21 hours
$20k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 21 hours
88%
20-39
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?
$88k Vol.
$14k Liq.
4
Ends in about 1 month
$88k Vol.$14k Liq.4Ends in about 1 month
42%
April 30
65%
December 31
Tennis · Sports
Barletta: Marco Cecchinato vs Felix Gill
$51 Vol.
$160 Liq.
Ends in 9 days
$51 Vol.$160 Liq.Ends in 9 days
54%
Marco Cecchinato
Nothing Ever Happens: March
$292k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$292k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
70%
Nothing
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?
$12k Vol.
$12k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
$12k Vol.$12k Liq.1Ends in about 1 month
35%
April 30
What will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit in 2026?
$18k Vol.
$115 Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$18k Vol.$115 Liq.1Ends in 9 months
63%
Yes
Fact Check: Maduro capture staged?
$1.1m Vol.
$49k Liq.
🔥$60k today
67
Ends in about 5 hours
$1.1m Vol.🔥$60k today$49k Liq.67Ends in about 5 hours
0%
Yes
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
$609k Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$609k Vol.$40k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
5%
20+
What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in April 2026?
$5 Vol.
$154 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$5 Vol.$154 Liq.Ends in about 1 month
65%
↑ $3.00