Macro Geopolitics Predictions & Odds· 126 markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
$1.5m Vol.
$121k Liq.
🔥$56k today
102
Ends in about 1 month
$1.5m Vol.🔥$56k today$121k Liq.102Ends in about 1 month
20%
Yes
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
$7.6m Vol.
$209k Liq.
705
Ends in 9 months
$7.6m Vol.$209k Liq.705Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
$193k Vol.
$43k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months
$193k Vol.$43k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
24%
Yes
33%
Yes
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?
$360k Vol.
$152k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$360k Vol.$152k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
5%
June 30
NYC Mayor # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$16k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$16k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 4 days
59%
20-39
Geopolitics · World
Next leader out of power before 2027?
$3.4m Vol.
$498k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$3.4m Vol.$498k Liq.Ends in 9 months
60%
Orbán - Hungary PM
White House # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$6k Vol.
$44k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$6k Vol.$44k Liq.Ends in 8 days
32%
160-179
NYC Mayor # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$810 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$810 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 8 days
46%
20-39
NYC Mayor # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$18k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$18k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 1 day
55%
20-39
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?
$88k Vol.
$15k Liq.
4
Ends in about 1 month
$88k Vol.$15k Liq.4Ends in about 1 month
44%
April 30
67%
December 31
Sports · Games
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Rei Sakamoto
$4k Vol.
$94k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
$4k Vol.$94k Liq.Ends in 7 days
63%
Marco Trungelliti
Nothing Ever Happens: March
$289k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$289k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
71%
Nothing
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?
$12k Vol.
$13k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
$12k Vol.$13k Liq.1Ends in about 1 month
38%
April 30
What will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit in 2026?
$18k Vol.
$117 Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$18k Vol.$117 Liq.1Ends in 9 months
63%
Yes
Fact Check: Maduro capture staged?
$1.1m Vol.
$46k Liq.
🔥$57k today
66
Ends in about 13 hours
$1.1m Vol.🔥$57k today$46k Liq.66Ends in about 13 hours
0%
Yes
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
$603k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$603k Vol.$43k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
4%
20+
What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in April 2026?
$5 Vol.
$163 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$5 Vol.$163 Liq.Ends in about 1 month
82%
↑ $3.00